Phillies 2020 Opening Day roster early predictions before free agency

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PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 30: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)S /

Starting Rotation

The Phillies starting rotation will see the biggest facelift this offseason with at least two spots open for Matt Klentak to fill.

Aaron Nola returns atop the rotation two years removed from one of the greatest single-season performances by a Phillies starter, capped off with a third place finish for the Cy Young award.

Statistically, Nola took a step back last year with an ERA 1.50 points higher than his 2018 season. The 10 additional home runs allowed, possibly due to the new baseball, certainly played a role in that struggle for Nola.

Behind Nola, questions loom large for the Phillies starting rotation, now led by pitching coach Bryan Price.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 26: Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) walks to the dugout in the third inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies on July 26, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Jake Arrieta will return after pitching through bone spurs last season and undergoing surgery late in the season to clean up his elbow. Philadelphia can’t rely on the former Cy Young award winner to be anything more than a mid-rotation piece in 2020, but a bounce-back campaign by Arrieta would be huge for Philadelphia.

The mix of high-ceiling righties Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta remains for now, but any one of them could be dangled as trade bait for a rebuilding team ready to move a veteran.

Eflin showed the most promise down the stretch, finishing with a 2.83 ERA in his final seven starts. He stands to be, at best, the Phillies number three or four starter in 2020 and possibly the first pitcher bounced from the rotation if Spencer Howard comes up.

As for Velasquez and Pivetta, their rollercoaster careers in Philadelphia may be coming to an end. A team like Detroit could give them more time to develop in an environment with less on the line, and some could value them high, similar to how Seattle saw J.P. Crawford last offseason.

On the free agent market, the Phillies have been linked to all of the big names: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.

I would expect the Phillies to push for most of those players and keep an eye on the trade market for Matthew Boyd, Robbie Ray, or Corey Kluber.

Prediction: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin