Phillies 2020 Opening Day roster early predictions
There are a lot of ways the Phillies offseason can turn, but we’re taking an early shot at the opening day roster.
Pitchers and catchers don’t report for three more months, and a lot is going to change on the Phillies roster between free agency, trades, and other roster moves.
There are two everyday jobs, third base and center field, up for grabs this offseason. Free agents such as Mike Moustakas or Josh Donaldson would fill a big need, while a trade for Starling Marte, Kris Bryant, or Francisco Lindor could shake everything up.
Will Scott Kingery be the starting second baseman, center fielder, or third baseman in 2020? That all depends on the third base market in free agency, what the Phillies could get for Cesar Hernandez in a trade, and what becomes of the center field job.
The starting pitching needs to be completely revamped beyond Aaron Nola, who will hopefully return to somewhat of what we saw in 2018 when he was a Cy Young candidate. New pitching coach Bryan Price should play a big role in Nola bouncing back from a down year.
Philadelphia’s bullpen was decimated by injuries last year with top free agent signing David Robertson going down with Tommy John surgery. A lot of the depth relievers will be free agents this year, leaving a couple of bullpen jobs open.
There’s a lot for Joe Girardi, Matt Klentak, Andy MacPhail, and John Middleton to get done this offseason, but we’re making their lives easier by providing our suggestions for the 25, or potentially 26, man roster.
Starting Rotation
The Phillies starting rotation will see the biggest facelift this offseason with at least two spots open for Matt Klentak to fill.
Aaron Nola returns atop the rotation two years removed from one of the greatest single-season performances by a Phillies starter, capped off with a third place finish for the Cy Young award.
Statistically, Nola took a step back last year with an ERA 1.50 points higher than his 2018 season. The 10 additional home runs allowed, possibly due to the new baseball, certainly played a role in that struggle for Nola.
Behind Nola, questions loom large for the Phillies starting rotation, now led by pitching coach Bryan Price.
Jake Arrieta will return after pitching through bone spurs last season and undergoing surgery late in the season to clean up his elbow. Philadelphia can’t rely on the former Cy Young award winner to be anything more than a mid-rotation piece in 2020, but a bounce-back campaign by Arrieta would be huge for Philadelphia.
The mix of high-ceiling righties Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta remains for now, but any one of them could be dangled as trade bait for a rebuilding team ready to move a veteran.
Eflin showed the most promise down the stretch, finishing with a 2.83 ERA in his final seven starts. He stands to be, at best, the Phillies number three or four starter in 2020 and possibly the first pitcher bounced from the rotation if Spencer Howard comes up.
As for Velasquez and Pivetta, their rollercoaster careers in Philadelphia may be coming to an end. A team like Detroit could give them more time to develop in an environment with less on the line, and some could value them high, similar to how Seattle saw J.P. Crawford last offseason.
On the free agent market, the Phillies have been linked to all of the big names: Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel.
I would expect the Phillies to push for most of those players and keep an eye on the trade market for Matthew Boyd, Robbie Ray, or Corey Kluber.
Prediction: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin
Bullpen
Injuries to the Phillies bullpen was a major reason behind their demise in 2019 after losing David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Seranthony Dominguez, Adam Morgan, Tommy Hunter, and Victor Arano for long-periods of time.
Robertson, one of the Phillies key offseason acquisitions, is likely to miss the entire 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. It’s unlikely he’ll give the Phillies anything other than the seven appearances he mustered in 2019, all at the cost of $23 million, a deal that looked like a steal for Philadelphia at the time.
Neshek and Hunter are both free agents and are unlikely to return given their age and injury history.
Also on the free agent market the Phillies stand to lose Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, Mike Morin, Blake Parker, and Nick Vincent.
Philadelphia Phillies
Of those players the Phillies might consider a reunion with Jared Hughes, who had a 2.41 ERA in his final 21 appearances with the Phillies. Morin and Parker had varying degrees of success, but each had at least three really bad games.
In his second stint with the Phillies, Nicasio was frustrating, allowing at least one hit in 31 of his 47 games. He’s likely moving on after coming over in the J.P. Crawford/Jean Segura trade.
Most likely to return to the bullpen (depending on health) are Hector Neris, Dominguez, Morgan, Jose Alvarez, Victor Arano, and Ranger Suarez.
Candidates to start the season in the bullpen include J.D. Hammer, Edubray Ramos, Edgar Garcia, Enyel De Los Santos, Nick Pivetta, Cole Irvin, and Vince Velasquez.
Assuming the Phillies don’t trade Pivetta or Velasquez, they’ll likely compete for one or two rotation spots before moving to the pen. Ramos is in his first year of arbitration and must be tendered a contract, which might not happen.
On the free agent market, Philadelphia missed out on Will Smith, perhaps the only safe option available. Dellin Betances is coming off an injury-plagued season in New York, but Joe Girardi is familiar with him. Will Harris had a 1.50 ERA for Houston last year, but he’ll be 35 this season. Sergio Romo was reasonably effective for the Twins and Marlins last year, but he turns 37 this offseason.
Trades aren’t expected to be great options either with the Reds expected to keep Raisel Iglesias.
Prediction: Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez, Victor Arano, Ranger Suarez, Vince Velasquez, Dellin Betances
If Arano or Dominguez aren’t healthy, Hammer or another low-risk free agent fill the spots.
Catcher
The Phillies know what they have in J.T. Realmuto, he’ll be the least of their worries in 2020. The team’s lone All-Star earned a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and finished 14th in the National League MVP race. It’s the first time a Phillies catcher has won both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in the same season.
Realmuto also set the Phillies single-season record for doubles by a catcher (36) and caught 43 runners stealing, joining Bob Boone (54), Clay Dalrymple (45, 50), Andy Seminick (43), and Darren Daulton (49) as the only modern-era Phillies to throw out 40 runners in a season.
The only thing Philadelphia has to worry about with Realmuto is his contract, which ends after this season. Realmuto has sounded optimistic that a deal will get done, but when?
Hopefully the Phillies get a deal done with Realmuto, cause their options behind him aren’t great.
The status of Andrew Knapp is a point of contention for Phillies fans. A career .223 batting average and defense that’ average at best doesn’t excite the fanbase when Realmuto needs to take a Sunday day game off.
For some reason, former manager Gabe Kapler and the front office loved throwing Knapp out there, even as a pinch-hitter. Knapp certainly hasn’t lived up to being the 53rd overall pick of the 2013 Draft when he was taken two rounds ahead of Cody Bellinger.
There are a ton of backup level catchers in the free agent market this offseason, including Russell Martin, Martin Maldonado, Yan Gomes, Jason Castro, and Francisco Cervelli.
Philadelphia also has prospect Deivy Grullon, who appeared in four games late last season, but he’s expected to be in Lehigh Valley, barring a trade.
Because of a new rule allowing a 26th man on the major league roster the Phillies could hypothetically carry three catchers. I’d expect them to at the very least explore the catcher market and have a spring training competition for the backup or potentially third catcher job.
Prediction: J.T. Realmuto, Martin Maldonado
Starting Infield
The Phillies could shake up their entire starting infield this offseason with trade rumors circling nearly every starter from 2019.
The most likely player to be evicted from the roster is third baseman Maikel Franco, the former top prospect turned erratic hitter. Franco has had ample time to prove he’s a starting major league third baseman, now having over 2,500 big league at-bats. A career .249 batting average won’t keep Franco in Phillies pinstripes, and he very well could be non-tendered.
Mike Moustakas, Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier, and top prospect Alec Bohm are potential starters at third base.
Cesar Hernandez is also expected to be traded, but we’ve been saying that for two seasons now.
Hernandez has never been more than an average player with a career average of .277 with an on-base percentage of at-least .333 over his last five seasons. Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburg, and Cincinnati are just a couple of potential landing spots for Hernandez, who is playing his last season under team control.
Rhys Hoskins is likely coming back, but his batting average continues to plummet and his extra-base hits took a hit under hitting coach John Mallee. Philadelphia has Hoskins under team control through the 2023 season, so he’s a very cheap, controllable piece for a team ready to spend stupid money.
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Philadelphia would love to see the National League implement the designated hitter role. Hoskins could easily slide into that job if top prospect Alec Bohm doesn’t pan out as a third baseman, as some scouts profile him to be a below-average defender at the hot corner.
For now Hoskins stays, but if the Phillies need a starting pitcher and Hoskins doesn’t play well under Joe Girardi’s coaching staff, his time in Philadelphia could be short.
Shortstop Jean Segura came under fire for his horrendous defense and base running errors, one of which led to Andrew McCutchen’s torn ACL. He’s under contract for at least three more years with an option for a fourth season, so they’d likely have to eat some money to trade him. It’s hard seeing them eat that money and then sign someone like Didi Gregorious.
Segura could also move to second if Hernandez is traded and Scott Kingery plays either third or center.
Prediction: Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Mike Moustakas
Outfield
Going into the 2020 season there is likely only one outfield spot set in stone, that being Bryce Harper in right field. In year two of his 13-year contract Harper will look to build on a successful inaugural season in Philadelphia where he hit 35 home runs and drove in a career-best 114 runs.
Beyond Harper is where the questions begin to pop up around the outfield.
Andrew McCutchen is likely returning to left field as the everyday starter after an ACL injury cost him most of the season and tanked the Phillies playoff run. It will be tough to count on a 33-year-old outfielder coming off the second major knee surgery of his playing career, but the prognosis looks good so far.
Center field remains the biggest question between Odubel Herrera’s return from suspension, Adam Haseley’s development, and the status of Scott Kingery as a super-utility player.
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Herrera is still under contract for two seasons with more than $20 million left on his deal. The Phillies appear ready to bring him into spring training to compete for a spot, but the overwhelming sentiment from writers is that Herrera will not be on the opening day roster.
Haseley looked like a major league player in center field, making highlight reel catches and hitting at a decent rate. He’s known for his tremendous hitting ability at every level he’s played at, and another year with a major league coaching staff could bring out the next level in Haseley’s bat.
Kingery’s final destination depends on whether the Phillies trade Cesar Hernandez or sign a third baseman this offseason. I predict Kingery’s days in center, while productive, are over.
The free agent market for center fielders isn’t impressive to say the least. Billy Hamilton, Juan Lagares, Alex Gordon, and Adam Jones highlight an aging group of platoon players.
The trade market is likely limited beyond Starling Marte, who would cost the Phillies quite a bit to acquire.
Prediction: Andrew McCutchen, Adam Haseley, Bryce Harper
The Bench
Beyond the pitching, Philadelphia’s weakest point going into last year was their bench. General manager Matt Klentak gave Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr, and Andrew Knapp one last shot to stick with the club long-term, but all three failed to live up to their expectations.
Altherr is already gone, Williams will likely be traded for scraps, and Knapp will fight for a roster spot in 2020.
Philadelphia had to scramble mid-season to fill their bench out, leading to the acquisitions of Jay Bruce, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Jose Pirela, and Corey Dickerson. Phil Gosselin and Sean Rodriguez both saw ample playing time, but proved to be nothing but role players.
Roman Quinn flashed at times, but was predictably injured for most of the season.
Bruce is expected to come back as insurance in left field and power from the left-side of the plate. Seattle is paying the majority of his contract in 2020, so there’s nothing much for the Phillies to lose by keeping him.
Dickerson is likely gone on the free agent market after picking it up offensively for the Phillies after being traded from Pittsburgh. He was a good, cheap get by Klentak, but there’s no room for him long-term.
The Phillies could pick between Miller, Gosselin, and Rodriguez as to who they want back as a utility player. Miller was solid, hitting 12 home runs with a .263 batting average after being traded from Cleveland. While he’d be another left-handed bat, he played five positions last year.
We covered the catching position earlier, which could be a battle for the backup job between Knapp and a free agent.
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If the 26-man roster goes through, the Phillies would have two spots left on their bench. They need a right-handed bat, which could be Quinn as a switch-hitter, if he’s healthy. Rodriguez was not popular among the fanbase, so he’s an unlikely returner. Gosselin hit .342 off the bench and played multiple positions, so he’s a candidate to return to his hometown team.
Todd Frazier could be an option as a power bat off the right-hand side, but he’s limited to only a couple of positions. He does have a history with Joe Girardi and is from South Jersey.
Would a reunion with reigning World Series MVP Howie Kendrick make sense? He did hit .344 in 121 games for Washington last year and played five positions in the last two seasons.
Prediction: Jay Bruce, Brad Miller, Roman Quinn, Todd Frazier (Assuming a 26-man roster)
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If the Phillies aren’t permitted to have a 26-man roster, they could drop someone like Frazier or a reliever to make the 25-man limit.