The Red Sox swept the Phillies in a two-game series at Citizens Bank Park, bringing Philadelphia’s playoff odds to a new low.
Last year, the Phillies quickly fell out of the playoff chase, dropping from first place in the middle of August to third by the end of September. This season, it has been a far slower fall, with their last day in first place coming on June 11. Their playoff odds have been dropping since the end of May and have now hit a new low.
The Red Sox dealt a one-two punch to the team over the weekend, handing Philadelphia two losses in less than 24 hours. This brought their record to 76-72, putting them 4.5 games back of the Cubs for the second wild-card spot. The Brewers and Mets are both ahead of the Phillies, bringing their odds even lower.
Heading into the weekend series against the Red Sox, Philadelphia’s playoff odds were 3.8% according to Fangraphs. J.T. Realmuto said the offense was “clicking at the right time” after Thursday’s game against the Braves. He immediately had to put his foot in his mouth as Philadelphia scored just four runs combined in the two-game set with Boston, giving Aaron Nola only one run of support Saturday night in one of his best starts of the season.
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Following Boston’s sweep, the Phillies have a meager 0.6% chance of making the playoffs. This is the lowest their odds have been all year with the end of the season quickly approaching. Fangraphs projects them to finish 6-8, just good enough to end the year with a winning record. Even if they do finish with a winning record, it definitely won’t feel like it.
Manager Gabe Kapler and the rest of his team will reiterate that they are still in the race, but pretty much everyone outside the organization can see the writing on the wall. The Phillies begin an 11-game road trip Tuesday in Atlanta and will face the Indians and Nationals after that.
They end the season at home against the Marlins, but by then it will probably be too late to save the season.
Most fans have turned their attention towards the offseason or to the Eagles by this point, and no one can blame them. The last three and a half months have been a slow chokehold that will eventually wring out all the hope that existed before the season started.