That Balls Outta Here
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Phillies facing do-or-die NL East series against Atlanta Braves

By Seth Humeniuk

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Scott Kingery #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies scores as catcher Kurt Suzuki #24 of the Atlanta Braves can't handle the throw on a two-run single by Cesar Hernandez #16 during the seventh inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Scott Kingery #4 of the Philadelphia Phillies scores as catcher Kurt Suzuki #24 of the Atlanta Braves can't handle the throw on a two-run single by Cesar Hernandez #16 during the seventh inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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A rough month of June put the Phillies 5.5 games back in the NL East. They have a huge series in Atlanta this week with a chance to salvage their season.

Ladies and gentlemen, the calendar just flipped to July, and the Philadelphia Phillies are already facing a do-or-die series. They enter this massive set in Atlanta 5.5 games back of the Braves, and although we’ve only just reached the halfway point of the season, a loss here might put the Phils in too big a hole to climb out of.

It’s hard to think that when the calendar flipped to June, the Phillies were nine games above .500, and led the NL East by three games, but an 11-16 month for Philadelphia combined with a 20-8 month for Atlanta puts the Phils’ hopes of an NL East title against the ropes.

This series honestly doesn’t look too promising for the Phillies. On Tuesday, Atlanta will send out newly acquired Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 5.06 ERA), who should be improving with each start after missing the first 2.5 months of the season, Bryse Wilson (0-0, 8.31 ERA) and All-Star Mike Soroka (9-1, 2.13 ERA).

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Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.22 ERA) will pitch on regular rest Tuesday and hope to build on his two straight ten-strikeout outings. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.63 ERA) and Zach Eflin (7-7, 3.34 ERA) will then follow on Wednesday and Thursday.

As I mentioned before, the Braves enter this series hot, coming off a 6-4 road swing, while the Phils come in having maybe turned a corner?

The Phillies’ offense was flatter than Kansas during their seven-game losing skid, but roared to life against the Mets, and looked mostly good against Miami too.

Philadelphia scored a paltry 15 runs during their losing streak, but have scored almost triple that (42 runs) in the seven games since. The Phillies’ offense appears to be back on track; I’m not worried about them for this series.

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However, the team’s pitching has continued to struggle. Starting with the last series in Atlanta, the Phillies’ bullpen has blown a lead four times, and the pitching staff as a whole has allowed seven runs per game. Phils’ pitching also allowed 54 homers last month, which the Phillies radio broadcast team mentioned is a club record for a single month. They’ve allowed 142 on the season; only Seattle has allowed more.

The Phillies need to sweep this series to get back into the race. A sweep would put them 2.5 games out, which is more than manageable, while getting swept would drop them to 8.5 down, as close to a death blow as you can have in July.

The Phillies are also tied for the second wild-card spot, but a multitude of teams are within striking distance. Falling three or four games back, and behind four or five teams, there might be an even steeper hill to climb. Fangraphs gives the Phillies a 24% chance to earn a playoff spot, and only a four percent chance to win the NL East. A loss in this series would drop their odds significantly.

This series will tell us a lot about this team and set the table for the rest of the season. Hopefully, it’ll prove this team is resilient, and able to rise to the challenge, and that June was just a rough patch.

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Unfortunately, the Phillies performance in big series the rest of the season suggests otherwise. It’s do-or-die for the Phillies; let’s hope they brought a whole forest of bamboo to Atlanta for this one.

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