Phillies June swoon puts them in major hole for playoff race

After a rough month of June, the Phillies now need a significant turnaround in the second half to find a way into the playoffs.

While the Phillies were able to cap off June with a 13-6 win over the Marlins, it doesn’t overshadow what was a turbulent month for the team. Philadelphia finished June with an 11-16 record after going 16-13 in March and April and 17-11 in May. This includes a stretch of 10 losses in 12 games, which was capped off by a seven-game losing streak.

After entering June 33-24 with a three-game lead in the NL East, they now sit at 44-40 and six games back of the Braves for the division lead pending the result of their contest with the Mets Sunday night.

While things looked to be different following an emphatic sweep of the Mets, they dropped two of three to the Marlins to end the month and put a damper on the rest of the season.

More from That Balls Outta Here

• Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
• Phillies rumors: Club targets Seth Lugo for possible bullpen role
• Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
• Acquiring Brandon Marsh gave the Phillies flexibility
• Former Phillies starter Zach Eflin shares heartwarming goodbye message

Thanks to a surge by Atlanta at the same time as Philadelphia’s swoon, the Phillies are now facing an uphill battle the rest of the season to make the playoffs. In addition to being down six to Atlanta, they are tied for the second wild-card spot with the Rockies. Four other teams are within three games of that spot, so they don’t have any more breathing room.

With Atlanta on pace to win 96 games, Philadelphia would have to win 52 of their next 78 games to match that total. For reference, that is about two-thirds of their remaining games, a winning percentage that not even the league-leading Yankees have this year.

Barring a 2018 Phillies-style collapse by the Braves in the second half, it’s wild card or bust for Philadelphia.

The odds of the Phillies making the playoffs aren’t looking good, even following Sunday’s win. Baseball-Reference gave them a slim 19.7% chance to make the playoffs and 4.3% chance to win the division heading into today’s action. Fangraphs puts their playoff odds at 23.6%, while Five Thirty-Eight puts them at 32% following the win.

All in all, June was a significant gut punch to the Phillies playoff chances. They need a major turnaround in July to reinsert themselves into the division race. If this swoon continues into July, this may become a wasted season.