Re-evaluating Phillies pitching staff after rough start to season
The Phillies pitching staff has struggled since the 2019 season started. What has gone wrong and where do they go from here?
Pitching was the Phillies strength last year. A rotation anchored by Cy Young finalist Aaron Nola and bullpen boosted by rookie Seranthony Dominguez combined for the fourth-most Fangraphs wins above replacement (fWAR). They were the only team with 80 or fewer wins in the top five and just one of two in the top ten.
Considering the rotation’s success and the bullpen’s offseason improvements, many expected similar strong results this season. However, that has not been the case at all, especially in the last week.
As a whole, Phillies pitchers rank 21st in fWAR, 20th in ERA, 22nd in fielding-independent pitching (FIP), 17th in expected FIP (xFIP), 19th in strikeout-to-walk ratio, 21st in WHIP, 24th in opposing batting average, and 25th in home runs per fly ball rate. After a 15-1 shellacking Wednesday night, they rank 22nd in runs allowed per game.
The offense has started off the year red-hot but can’t be expected to make up for the pitching staff’s deficiencies every night. We saw that in losses against the Nationals on April 5 by a 9-8 final score and again Tuesday night by a 10-6 score.
While it is still very early in the season, these issues with the pitching staff cannot continue if the team wants to contend for the playoffs. Every team that made it to the division series last season had a pitching staff that ranked in the top half of the league in fWAR. If the pitching issues persist all season, you can kiss any playoff hopes goodbye.
Here I’ll take a look at the starting rotation, the bullpen, and what the team can do from here to make things better.
Starting rotation
I (and many others) believed the starting rotation would be a strength this season. Aaron Nola was a Cy Young contender, Nick Pivetta had the makings of a breakout year, Jake Arrieta was healthy, and Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez flashed enough potential to be serviceable back-end starters. Boy, we were wrong.
Phillies starters rank 24th among all 30 teams with just 0.3 fWAR in 11 games. They rank 21st in ERA, 27th in fielding-independent pitching, 22nd in WHIP, and 21st in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Home runs have been a notable issue, allowing 12 so far, tied for seventh-most.
Eflin has easily been the team’s best starter so far. In two outings he has allowed just one run on a solo home run. Altogether, he has a 0.75 ERA, 14 strikeouts, one walk allowed, and nine hits allowed in 12 innings. He is currently the league leader in strikeout-to-walk ratio and ERA+. His 0.8 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement (rWAR) are tied for most on the team with Bryce Harper and fifth-most in the league.
Arrieta has been alright in his first two starts as well, but not without some issues. While he has a 2.77 ERA with just four runs allowed so far, he has walked nine batters and given up eight hits in 13 innings. His FIP of 6.34 is eighth-highest in the league. Arrieta’s results have been good, but it’s unlikely he can sustain them.
Velasquez did okay in his first start of the year Monday night, giving up two runs on four hits and no walks in five innings. Efficiency remains an issue as he threw 80 pitches to complete those five innings. We will know more about him once he makes his second start Sunday against the Marlins.
Now we get to the pressing issues. Nola has struggled miserably this year, giving up 12 runs (11 earned) in 15.1 innings over three starts. In his most recent start Tuesday night, Nola went six strong innings before imploding in the seventh, giving up three runs to finish with a line of five runs in 6.1 innings. Matthew Landmesser did a good job breaking down what has gone wrong so far this year for Nola.
Pivetta has been the team’s worst starter this year, putting a real dent in the breakout conversation. He has a 9.45 ERA in 13.1 innings through three starts, third-worst in the league among qualified starters. Hitters have had no issue squaring up Pivetta as he has allowed a league-leading 24 hits and surrendered three home runs. He opened the floodgates for Wednesday’s blowout, giving up seven runs in 3.2 innings.
Bullpen
While the starters have not done well, the bullpen has not done any better. They rank 19th in fWAR, 21st in ERA, 17th in FIP, 19th in WHIP, and 21st in home run to fly ball rate. Their issues have directly led to at least two of their four losses this season.
The first of those two losses came April 3. Aaron Nola did not have a good start at all, and at first, the bullpen held fast. The Phillies rallied back to take an 8-6 lead, but Seranthony Dominguez gave up two runs (with the help of a Rhys Hoskins error) to leave the game tied. Dominguez has not been the same kind of pitcher this year, giving up four earned runs on five hits and two walks in four innings.
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David Robertson, another pitcher who was supposed to be a stabilizing presence in the back end, gave up three straight walks and a hit to walk in the winning run. He has since made three scoreless appearances since that loss, but he still holds a 7.71 ERA and more walks (five) than strikeouts (four).
The next of the two losses came Tuesday night, again against the Nationals. Nola had another rough outing, but Dominguez was able to close the door in the seventh.
When the ninth inning came, Edubray Ramos, who now sports a 9.00 ERA, came in for the save with Dominguez and Hector Neris already out of the game. He was able to get a 2-2 count with two outs, but Victor Robles hit a game-tying home run.
The Nationals smacked around Jose Alvarez for four runs in the top of the tenth, all but assuring Washington of a win. He has allowed seven runs total this year, good for the highest ERA on the pitching staff at 12.46.
Only two Phillies relievers have an ERA below 3.00: Adam Morgan and Pat Neshek. They have been the few bright spots in a dismal bullpen situation. Combined with the unstable starting rotation, there is zero security in any lead the team has at this point.
Where do the Phillies go from here?
As I mentioned on the first slide, it’s doubtful the Phillies can make the playoffs without improvement from the pitching staff. For all we know, by the end of the month, the pitchers could turn things around, and this article will be irrelevant. In the meantime, what can the team do to improve their pitching staff?
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The two answers Twitter seem to like the most are Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel. The two remain free agents two weeks into the regular season, and there’s no sign they’re close to a deal.
Kimbrel is the one fans are clamoring for more after watching the bullpen struggle against the Nationals. He is indeed an attractive option, but there’s no indication he’s backed off his six-year asking price. A two or three-year deal is more sensible, but unless he comes down to that, he’s not coming here.
Keuchel also has not reneged on his demand for a long-term deal. Like Kimbrel, Philadelphia would likely be interested in Keuchel on a short-term deal, but there’s no indication that it is in the pipeline.
More external options could emerge at the trade deadline. The Phillies had interest in Robbie Ray during the offseason, and there’s a good chance he becomes available by midseason. Other starting and relieving options always emerge as teams recognize whether or not they are contenders.
Internally, Jerad Eickhoff is one of several options at Triple-A who could join the rotation need be. Adonis Medina, the team’s top pitching prospect, is in Double-A and on the 40-man roster, but it’s unlikely he leapfrogs the guys in Triple-A.
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Whatever the Phillies do, something needs to happen to fix the pitching staff. Whether it’s the pitchers on the major-league roster improving, a promotion, or an outside acquisition, the pitching staff needs to improve.