Phillies 2019 season preview: Second baseman Cesar Hernandez
Cesar Hernandez had a down year in 2018, spending the second half of the season injured. Can he bounce back for the Phillies playoff run this year?
Between the excitement of the offseason and missing a significant part of camp, little has been said about Cesar Hernandez during Phillies spring training this year. Despite that, his potential bounceback is one of the more interesting unheralded storylines of this season.
It’s easy to put Hernandez on the backburner after his 2018 season. He finished the year with a .253/.356/.362 line, 94 OPS+, and 1.4 Baseball-Reference wins above replacement, well below his numbers from the previous two years. Hernandez set career highs in home runs (15), runs batted in (60) and runs scored (91), but his overall offensive production was still weaker than it has been.
The team confirmed after the season that Hernandez played the second half of the year with a broken foot. His first half numbers (.270/.378/.382, 113 OPS+) were significantly better than in the second half (.228/.324/.333, 83 OPS+), which coincides with the idea that Hernandez was injured. His line still wasn’t quite up to where it was in 2017 even in the first half, but he was still an above-average hitter.
Hernandez also saw a notable decline in his defense. He was worth -1.0 defensive wins above replacement in 2018 after being positive in the last two years. Hernandez went from -2 defensive runs saved in 2017 to -12 in 2018 and a 3.3 UZR/150 to -3.3. This decline could also be attributed to his broken foot.
Can Hernandez bounce back from his down season and return to prominence in the Phillies lineup?
Hernandez’s role in 2019
Since taking over as the starting second baseman from Chase Utley in 2015, Hernandez had been a staple in the top of the lineup. His on-base ability made him the perfect leadoff hitter in the new age of lineup construction. Among hitters with 200 or more plate appearances from the leadoff spot in 2016 and 2017, Hernandez had the fifth-best on-base percentage (.383).
More from Phillies News
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Bryce Harper’s absence should lead to Phillies lineup tinkering
- Pirates’ bizarre Vince Velasquez hype video will make Phillies fans laugh
However, that role will change this year. Manager Gabe Kapler stated that Andrew McCutchen, not Hernandez, will hit leadoff this year, thanks to his combination of on-base ability and power. Instead, Hernandez will hit sixth or seventh per Kapler.
Some speculate that Hernandez could hit ninth with the pitcher batting eighth. This would make Hernandez a “second leadoff hitter” before the big guns at the top of the lineup come back up.
Kapler toyed with this idea many times last season, most notably with Roman Quinn. He could very well do it again with Hernandez.
Hernandez remains in a precarious position with the team due to Scott Kingery‘s long-term contract. This is Hernandez’s penultimate season of team control before becoming a free agent after the 2020 season. It will be hard to justify extending or re-signing Hernandez with Kingery already guaranteed $18.75 million from 2021 to 2023.
If Kingery shows improvements this year, Hernandez could be at the center of trade rumors at the trade deadline or during the offseason. However, that is a big if considering Kingery’s 2018 season. For now, Hernandez is the starting second baseman in what is now a very deep lineup.
Projections for Hernandez in 2019
Hernandez came into camp fully healed from his broken foot but suffered a strained hip flexor at the end of February. He has since returned without any issues, so injuries will hopefully not be a continuing problem for Hernandez this season.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
- Does Bailey Falter have a future in Phillies’ rotation?
- Prospect Andrew Baker could help Phillies bullpen in 2023
If healthy, expect Hernandez’s defensive numbers to return closer to his career normals. Playing alongside Jean Segura, an adept shortstop, rather than Kingery or Asdrubal Cabrera, should also help Hernandez out defensively.
PECOTA projects Hernandez to finish the year with a .271/.355/.398 line, 12 home runs, 54 runs batted in, 10.7% walk rate, 20.8% strikeout rate, 104 DRC+, and 2.3 wins above replacement. This projection is somewhere between Hernandez’s 2017 and 2018 seasons as they try to account for the dip in production.
Hernandez may very well be able to return to his 2016 and 2017 levels of production with a full healthy season.
Hernandez was on his way to doing so in the first half of 2018 before breaking his foot halfway through the year. The team may have been better off placing him on what is now the injured list, but there’s no point arguing that now.
Next. Bullpen coming together as Arano, Rios go to LHV. dark
Hitting towards the bottom of the lineup should relieve some of the offensive pressure on Hernandez. If he can bounce back even somewhat, he will be a valuable asset as the team makes a serious run at the playoffs. If his defense can return to form as well, he should return to the 3-4 WAR player he was in season’s past.