Phillies 2019 season preview: First baseman Rhys Hoskins

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TAMPA, FL – MARCH 13: (L-R) J.T. Realmuto #10, Drew Butera #41, Rhys Hoskins #17, and Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies warm up before the spring training game against the New York Yankees at Steinbrenner Field on March 13, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Projecting Rhys Hoskins in 2019

While Hoskins was set to hit 40 home runs based on his second-half average last year the projections aren’t favoring him all that much.

The Marcel Forecasting System used by Baseball Reference is described by its designer as the most basic system there is, using age and the last three years worth of performance in its factoring.

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Baseball Reference is projecting Hoskins to hit .251 with 29 home runs, 28 doubles, and strike out 123 times. The 29 home runs are three more than what his career average would be if you simply looked at his career games and home runs.

Over 162 games Hoskins would average 41 home runs, so the MFS projection is very low for Hoskins.

ZiPS, a projection system developed by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski, predicts Hoskins will hit .251 with 34 home runs.

A repeat 34 home run season wouldn’t be horrible from Hoskins after he finished in the top-10 in baseball last year, but I think he has another level of power we haven’t seen yet.

I think Hoskins can eclipse the 40 home run mark, something the Phillies haven’t seen since Howard hit 45 a decade ago for the National League pennant club.

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A batting average in the .250s won’t shock me, but I will be shocked if Hoskins doesn’t come close to passing his career-high 96 RBI and possibly crack the century mark in 2019, assuming he’s healthy.