Predictions for Segura in 2019
Full disclosure – Segura is my dark horse MVP candidate in the NL. I think he’s going to have a monster year, similar to 2016 with the Diamondbacks.
If the potential lineups ring any truth, he will be smack in the middle of two MVPs (Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper). He’ll have the opportunity to knock in a bunch of runs, with McCutchen’s career OBP near .380 and Cesar turning over the lineup with an OBP of .367 the past three years.
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Segura will also get a lot of great pitches to hit, because no one would rather pitch to Harper than Segura. I see his power numbers getting a boost this year, too. When he does get on, with the big bats of Harper and Hoskins behind him, he’s going to score a lot of runs, while also swiping 20-30 bags to put himself in better scoring position.
In terms of stats, here’s how I see Segura’s 2019 going: .325 batting average, .380 OBP, 60 walks, 25 stolen bases, 25 home runs, 200 hits, five triples, and 60 strikeouts.
Segura will thrive off the success of the rest of this lineup. In 2016, his most successful season, he had Paul Goldschmidt behind him, who finished second in MVP voting to McCutchen in 2013 and Harper in 2015. Now, Segura gets to bat in a lineup with both of them.
If Segura can become more selective with his pitches and draw more walks, he’ll force pitchers to throw him pitches he can barrel up. Although he’s a definite longshot, I think Segura has the surroundings and the ability to force himself into the MVP conversation.
Even if he doesn’t get to that point, he’ll still be an efficient hitter and a welcome addition to a hit-deprived lineup from 2018.