Phillies 2019 season preview: Right fielder Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper was the crown jewel of the offseason, and the Phillies were able to sign him. Just how big of an impact can he make this year?
When the news dropped that the Phillies signed Bryce Harper, they became the main talking point in Philadelphia. Even with the surging Sixers and Flyers and the ever-present Eagles, Harper was able to bring the most conversation back to the Phillies for the first time in years. His 13-year, $330 million contract certainly raised some eyebrows, but one thing was clear: baseball will take the town over again, just like it did around the turn of the decade.
In his final year with the Nationals, Harper started off slow, hitting just .214 with 102 strikeouts in 94 games. He still hit 23 home runs and posted a .833 OPS, but it was not the kind of start he wanted for his contract year.
Things turned around for Harper during All-Star week as he won the Home Run Derby. His production skyrocketed during the last two and a half months of the season, posting a .300/.434/.538 line, 11 home runs, and 46 runs batted in during 65 games. There was a deal in place for him to go to the Astros at the trade deadline, but Nationals ownership rejected the move to try and make a last-ditch run at the playoffs.
Throughout his career, Harper has had his peaks and valleys. At his best, he is an MVP-caliber player capable of putting up 10 wins above replacement. Even at his worst, Harper is still capable of All-Star production. Just what can we expect from the new face of the franchise in his first season?
Harper’s role in 2019
Harper’s role on the team is pretty obvious: he is the new star player of the team. His record-setting contract made sure of that. As Harper goes, so will the team. When the club is doing well, Harper will likely be at the center of it. However, if they are struggling, Harper and his nine-figure contract will receive heavy scrutiny.
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An interesting decision will be where Harper slots in the lineup. When he has played so far in spring training, he has batted in the third spot. This is to be expected; he is the team’s best hitter, so standard baseball convention would lead to him hitting there. However, that is not the only place he could hit.
A new wave of thinking in baseball lineup construction puts your best hitter in the second spot instead of third. Manager Gabe Kapler did this last year with Rhys Hoskins, and he could do it with Harper. However, that may not be the best idea as Harper has a career .770 OPS in 178 games in that spot, the worst of any spot in the lineup for him.
Harper could also bat cleanup with his power. His best OPS in any lineup spot in more than 10 games during his career has been hitting fourth at .983. In 145 starts in this position, he has a .296 batting average, 32 home runs, and 103 runs batted in.
An interesting option would be to have Harper bat leadoff. The Nationals used him in that spot to try to jump-start him early on last year. In 12 games hitting leadoff last year, Harper hit four home runs, including two to open up a game. He only hit .217 from this spot, but seven of his 10 hits went for extra bases.
Kapler will be playing with house money making lineups with two former MVPs (Harper and Andrew McCutchen), three more All-Stars (Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, and Odubel Herrera) and Rhys Hoskins. Wherever Harper hits, he will do damage.
Projections for Harper in 2019
The only thing left to wonder about Harper this year is just how big of an impact he can make for this team. Can he find another way to win an MVP award for a team that will be facing a tough race in the National League East?
One sign that Harper could be in for a big year is his career numbers at Citizens Bank Park. In 50 games there, he has 14 home runs, 32 runs batted in, and a .930 OPS. Being able to play there for a full season should help boost his numbers. Playing in a hitter’s park was one of the reasons Harper cited when asked why he signed with the Phillies.
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However, questions remain about Harper’s defensive ability. He finished 2018 with -3.2 defensive wins above replacement, far and away the worst of his career and second-worst in baseball to Rhys Hoskins. His -26 defensive runs saved were also a career-worst by a mile and second-worst to Charlie Blackmon among outfielders. That poor defense dragged down Harper’s win above replacement totals as he finished with 4.2 offensive WAR.
Harper states that his bad numbers came from having to play center field; he played the most innings in center since his rookie year and had -10 DRS there. He also says recovering from the hyperextended right knee he suffered in 2017 hindered his performance early on.
Compared to the rest of his career, Harper’s 2018 season was an anomaly. In the six seasons prior, Harper never finished below -3 DRS and only had a negative ultimate zone rating once. If his defensive numbers are bad again this year, then there should be some cause for concern, but at this point, the recency bias is what has people so concerned.
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If Harper just plays mediocre to average defense this year, his offensive production will really shine. Playing in Citizens Bank Park could push his numbers back towards MVP levels and help bring his new team to the playoffs for the first time in eight years.