Phillies 2019 season preview: Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta
How much of the old Jake Arrieta can the Phillies hope to see in 2019?
The Phillies signed Jake Arrieta midway through spring training last year to help fortify their starting rotation for the next couple of years. Just a couple of seasons removed from career renaissance that culminated with a Cy Young award with the Cubs, expectations were high for Arrieta.
Despite behind the 8-ball coming into camp a couple of weeks behind schedule, Arrieta won three of his first four games in 2018. His campaign was highlighted by a 1.82 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Pirates at home and he was among the best pitchers in baseball early on.
Things didn’t hold up all that well for Arrieta, who finished the season with a 3.96 ERA and a 10-11 record in 31 starts.
Come to find out, Arrieta pitched a significant portion of the season with a torn meniscus, something he didn’t have fixed until the offseason. Arrieta also took heat during the season for publicly calling out his teammates after they were swept by the Giants.
Now entering the 2019 season Arrieta appears to be healthy and ready to compete as the number two starter behind Aaron Nola.
Arrieta was perfect through three innings in his spring training debut against Minnesota, and his success was linked to an adjustment to his throwing motion, moving his arm to a three-quarter slot.
Philadelphia has Arrieta signed through the 2019 season, after which Arrieta can opt-out, though that’s unlikely at this point. Arrieta has $20 million on the table for 2020 and the club has two team options worth $20 million each that will run through his late 30’s.
What’s Jake Arrieta’s role in 2019?
Arrieta enters the 2019 season as the Phillies number two starter behind Aaron Nola, who nearly joined his teammate as a Cy Young winner last year.
With nine seasons under his belt, Arrieta is currently the lone veteran in a very young pitching staff. The projected starting rotation other than Arrieta is Nola, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin, whose combined age on Opening Day will be 25-years-old, though three of them will celebrate a birthday during the season.
Arrieta has to be the leader on the staff even if he isn’t the best pitcher in 2019. While his public criticism of the team last year wasn’t enjoyed by all, it was a necessary evil to wake up one of the youngest clubs in baseball.
Philadelphia is relying on a healthy Arrieta to take a step forward on the field and be part of the reasoning as to why they haven’t signed free agent Dallas Keuchel. Most of the anti-Keuchel reasoning revolves around the young crop of starters, but if Arrieta hadn’t had his surgery until later in the offseason Keuchel might be in camp.
A strong season from Arrieta likely means another step forward for the Phillies organization as they strive to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Arrieta would be relied upon to take the ball should the Phillies appear in critical playoff games. In nine starts (including two in the World Series) for the Cubs, Arrieta had a 3.08 ERA and held batters to a .189 average.
Projecting Jake Arrieta in 2019
Several publications and stats and forecasting systems have laid out their projections for Arrieta in 2019. Some base their results on past results and they are often tame projections.
The Marcel Forecasting System used by Baseball Reference is described by its designer as the most basic system there is, using age and the last three years worth of performance in its factoring.
Arrieta is projected to go 11-9 with a 3.81 ERA in 2019, both of which would be only a hair-line improvement from his first season with Philadelphia.
FanGraphs lists six different projections based on different measurements for Arrieta. The average for them comes out with an 11-10 record and a 4.11 ERA, which feels somewhat high.
The most favorable projection for Arrieta (that I could find) comes from CBS Sports, who project Arrieta to have a 13-9 record and a 3.70 ERA.
Having an improved defense both behind him and the plate will only mean good things for Arrieta and the Phillies in 2019. Adding an experienced catcher like J.T. Realmuto can lead to better performances from a game-calling standpoint and his ability to block and frame balls.
Adding Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, and Bryce Harper to the field and moving Rhys Hoskins back to first will save Philadelphia games in 2019 and beyond.
Next. Three moves the Phillies can make before Opening Day. dark
With health and defense on his side in 2019 Arrieta is poised for a bounce-back season with the Phillies. His ceiling is likely to make the All-Star team and to win 14 games for Philadelphia as a playoff contender.
I believe Arrieta will finish the season with more wins than projected thanks to the improved team around him, though the rest of his numbers may not catch up to the win totals.