Phillies 2019 season preview: Starting pitcher Zach Eflin
Simply put, Zach Eflin will be pitching for his major league life in 2019. Will he be able to secure his future in the Phillies rotation?
Fellow TBOH contributor John Town gave Zach Eflin a B- grade after the 2018 season, which I would say is an unfortunate grade for how good he looked in the middle of the season. Zach Eflin began the Phillies’ 2018 campaign drawing the short straw, not joining the rotation until Ben Lively got injured in April.
Even after Eflin got the call, he stumbled out of the gate in May, going 1-2 in five starts with an ERA of 4.50. In June, Eflin showed why he was drafted in the first round by San Diego in 2012. The right-handed starter went 5-0 in five starts, posted a 1.76 ERA and only allowed a total of six runs.
Yet, the second half of the season was a struggle for Eflin, only winning four games from July to October (12 starts), with an ERA of 5.76. Also, as in every other big league stint, he dealt with injuries in the late stages of the season, including a strained oblique that kept him out of a pivotal September series.
This was the first season that Eflin threw over 100 innings, so the tapering off at the end of the season was anticipated. I’d rather focus on the first half of his season because I think he’ll be able to withstand the grind of a full season in 2019. In his first 12 starts, he had seven wins. Actually, he finished second on the team in wins (11) even though he had the least amount of starts in the rotation.
Through the first half of the season, Eflin posted a 3.15 ERA, and a batting average against of .233, with 67 strikeouts and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.79. Those are some above average numbers for the fifth starter in the rotation, and I think expectations for Eflin will be more related to longevity rather than numbers.
Eflin’s role in 2019
Simply put, Eflin will be pitching for his major-league life in 2019. Though he was the youngest member of the staff at 24 years old, there is going to be a lot of pressure and fluctuation at the back-end of the rotation for the Phillies this season.
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Eflin will be fighting off the young guns in the minors (Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Adonis Medina, etc.), who are trying to push their way into the league. Also, once Jerad Eickhoff returns from injury, he will be fighting off the former big-leaguer for starts at the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation.
Although, if recent history is on Eflin’s side, 2019 should be a year of solid production for him. The player I liken Eflin to the most on this Phillies’ team is his rotation-mate Nick Pivetta. In Pivetta’s first full season (26 starts), he edged Eflin in strikeouts, while Eflin had the better ERA, home run rate and walk rate.
Pivetta saw improvement in his second season in almost every category but wins, and that’s what I anticipate awaits Eflin in his second full season.
Eflin does a great job at avoiding the barrel of the bat, with hitters only getting the sweet spot 30.6% of the time, according to MLB.com’s StatCast. That ranks 21st out of 139 pitchers with more than 300 batted ball events, For reference, Aaron Nola ranked fourth with 27.9%. In addition to avoiding the barrel, he walks the second least among the five starters last year, 0.1 behind Nola.
Projections for Eflin in 2019
I believe Eflin is going to have a very stable but so-so 2019. That’s just the type of pitcher he is. He’s not going to strike out 15 guys like Pivetta, or pitch a no-no going into the ninth like Nola. But he’ll give you five/six strong innings where he strikes out seven/eight and maybe give up a couple runs. He’s a great fit to the back-end of the rotation, and will likely lose some starts to either Eickhoff or one of the minor league guys.
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In terms of stats, I think Eflin’s season will look something like this: 20 starts, 10 wins. A 4.25 ERA, with 130 strikeouts and 30 walks. And he’ll give up 15 home runs. My hope for Eflin is that he can pitch 160 innings and not have to deal with any injuries that keep him out of the rotation for too long.
If Eflin does end up missing time, his position may be in serious jeopardy. Eickhoff is raring to come back, and the prospects want a taste of the big leagues.
Yet, with Eickhoff’s health being a prevailing issue, and the start Eflin got off to last year, it is most certainly his job to lose. He may even improve his position if Vince Velasquez starts to falter, or transitions to the bullpen.
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What I think will be the most likely outcome is that the Phillies trend to what they’ve done in the past and have almost a six-man rotation once Eickhoff returns. That being said, 2019 could be the year that Eflin can ensure his place in the Phillies’ future plans.