An early look at Phillies on 2020 Hall of Fame ballot
By John Town
Billy Wagner
2019 was Wagner’s fourth year in the ballot. He received his first significant jump in support this year, going from 11.1% of votes in 2018 to 16.7% this year with 10 more voters saying they would have included Wagner if they could. Even then, he still has a long way to go before he will even sniff induction.
In two years with the Phillies, Wagner recorded 59 saves in 66 opportunities. He had a 2.37 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, 146 strikeouts, and 26 walks in 126 innings pitched. He earned All-Star honors in 2005 with a 1.51 ERA, 0.837 WHIP, 4.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 38 saves, and a league-leading 70 games finished.
Wagner was an effective pitcher for nearly the entirety of his major-league career, finishing with a 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 0.998 WHIP, 1196 strikeouts, 300 walks, and 422 saves in 853 appearances. He was an All-Star seven times and earned the Rolaids Reliever of the Year in 1999.
Relievers were a rare sight in the Hall of Fame for years, but with three joining in the last two years, the case is slowly emerging for them.
Wagner stacks up well against Mariano Rivera, who was unanimously elected this year. Wagner has the best strikeout rate and opposing batting average among pitchers with 800 or more innings. He also ranks first in WHIP and second in ERA and ERA+ to Rivera in the live-ball era. Wagner also ranks sixth in career saves behind three Hall of Famers (Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith) Franciso Rodriguez, and John Franco.
Perhaps the biggest case against Wagner is how he ranks in JAWS. He ranks below-average in JAWS, seven-year peak WAR, and career WAR among relief pitchers; that average will only go up once Rivera is formally inducted. It also doesn’t help that Wagner spent most of his career in Rivera and Hoffman’s shadow, not giving him as much attention as he may have deserved.
Wagner should see an increase in support in the coming years as relievers gain legitimacy in the Hall of Fame conversation. He has a lot of ground to cover to reach the 75% threshold, but he still has a few more years to do that. Wagner almost certainly will not get inducted in 2020, but his vote total should continue to rise.