Phillies free agency target profile: Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel is one of the best starting pitchers in free agency this offseason and could be a strong addition for the Phillies.

With James Paxton now a Yankee, the best starting pitchers available this offseason are free agents. The top two on the market are Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel, both of whom could be a fit with the Phillies.

Keuchel has been with the Astros since 2009 after being drafted in the seventh round. He is one of the many success stories of their player development program and is now ready to cash in during free agency.

Philadelphia is considered a player for many of the top starting pitchers, including Keuchel. Should they take the plunge on the longtime Astro?

Reasons to sign Keuchel

Keuchel made a name for himself back in 2015, winning the AL Cy Young and propelling Houston to their first postseason appearance since 2005. That year, he was an All-Star and finished fifth in MVP voting. He went 20-8 in 33 starts, posting a 2.48 ERA, 2.91 fielding-independent pitching, and league-leading 1.017 WHIP.

Keuchel was an All-Star again in 2017 with a 2.90 ERA in 23 starts.

While his numbers weren’t as great this year, he still had a 3.74 ERA and 3.69 fielding-independent pitching in 34 starts.

Since 2014, Keuchel has a 3.28 ERA (121 ERA+), 1.177 WHIP, 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.4 walks per nine. In this time, he ranks 16th among all starters in Fangraphs wins above replacement, 17th in ERA, and 24th in WHIP.

Keuchel does this all by inducing weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a career ground-ball rate of 58.8%, reaching 66.8% last season. Among qualified starters in 2018, Keuchel ranked fifth in both soft and hard contact generated. In addition, Keuchel ranked 21st in home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.

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Not for nothing, Keuchel is also a strong defensive pitcher. He has won the AL Gold Glove in four of the last five seasons, including in 2018. Keuchel ranks first since 2014 among pitchers with 42 defensive runs saved.

Reasons not to sign Keuchel

Since winning the Cy Young, Keuchel has been a good, but not great, pitcher. He fell off a cliff in 2016, posting a 4.55 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 26 starts. In three years since winning the award, Keuchel has a 3.77 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 1.250 WHIP. While these numbers are still good, they aren’t quite ace-level.

Keuchel dealt with some injury issues in 2017, although he was still successful when he was on the mound. He about a week with a pinched nerve in his neck was activated from the disabled list, then went back on soon after with more neck discomfort, missing close to two months. Otherwise, he has been healthy in his career, but those neck issues are worth probing before signing Keuchel.

Keuchel also saw a notable drop in his strikeout rate in 2018 compared to last year. He was never a high strikeout pitcher, but his strikeout rate fell to 17.5%. If this trend continues, he will really need to rely on his defense, something which burned Phillies starters in 2018.

Verdict

Altogether, Keuchel is simply too good of a pitcher to miss out on. With the club looking to add a left-handed starter this offseason, Keuchel is a great option. He would fit as a No. 2 or No. 3 behind Aaron Nola wonderfully.

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MLB Trade Rumors predicts Keuchel will get a four-year, $82 million contract this winter. Committing over $40 million per year to two starters in the rotation could be risky, but Keuchel has been worth that much in four of the last five seasons. With the way he pitches, he shouldn’t hit the aging curve as hard as some other pitchers.

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