Phillies free agency target profile: Outfielder A.J. Pollock

The Phillies should look to make an upgrade in the outfield this offseason, and A.J. Pollock may just be the upgrade they need.

While Bryce Harper is the outfielder most Phillies fans are talking about (and rightfully so), only one team can sign him. If Harper winds up somewhere other than Philadelphia, the club will have to look somewhere else to find an upgrade in the outfield. The next-best option is longtime Diamondback A.J. Pollock.

Harper is the top-ranked free agent according to MLB Trade Rumors. Pollock is ranked as the eighth-best free agent, third-best position player, and second-best outfielder on the list. He is predicted to get a four-year, $60 million contract from the Giants, although the Phillies are included as a potential fit. Should Philadelphia be the team giving Pollock that deal?

Reasons to sign Pollock

When Pollock was at his best, he was one of the best hitters in the league. Back in 2015, he was an All-Star, finished 14th in MVP voting, and won a Gold Glove award. That year, he had a .315/.367/.498 line with a 130 OPS+, 20 home runs, 76 runs batted in, 39 stolen bases, and 7.2 wins above replacement.

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While Pollock hasn’t been able to replicate that level of production, he is still a good hitter. He finished 2018 with an .800 OPS (106 OPS+) and 110 wRC+; among qualified Phils, only Rhys Hoskins finished with better marks. Pollock hit 21 home runs and drove in 65 runs in 113 games.

In addition to his offense, Pollock also posts good defense in center field. As mentioned previously, he won a Gold Glove in 2015 when he had 14 defensive runs saved and a 9.7 ultimate zone rating. In his career, Pollock has 50 defensive runs saved and 5.9 UZR/150 in center field. If Odubel Herrera can’t rechannel his strong defense in center field, then Pollock would be able to replace that defensive value.

Reasons not to sign Pollock

The biggest concern with Pollock is injuries. His 113 games this year were the most he had played since 2015. He missed significant time in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018 due to various injuries. He was Arizona’s version of Roman Quinn. Pollock’s durability is a major concern, especially when you consider that he will be 31 in December. It’s likely he misses a good chunk of time throughout the duration of the contract.

Another thing to consider is the qualified offer attached to Pollock. It may not be the biggest concern for the Phillies this offseason, but if they sign any other free agents with an offer attached, it will seriously cut into their draft capital next year.

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Also, if Philadelphia does sign Harper, signing Pollock would create a real sticky situation in the outfield. Signing both of these players would put Herrera, Quinn, Nick Williams, and potentially even Hoskins all in competition for one spot. The team would have to make a lot of other moves to accommodate both Harper and Pollock or any other combination of free agent outfielders.

Verdict

The idea of Pollock missing a significant portion of his time in Philadelphia while being paid around $15 million per year is definitely scary. That is a reason why the team doesn’t often pursue older starting pitchers, and the same logic applies here for Pollock. This may be what persuades them to pursue other second-tier outfielders like Michael Brantley or Andrew McCutchen.

On the other hand, say the team misses out on Harper and/or they are looking to replace Herrera in center field, Pollock is the best option on the market. He has the talent to have an MVP-caliber season with a balance of hitting, power, and defense. If he can re-channel that, then he can carry Philadelphia to the playoffs.

Pollock is definitely a name worth considering in free agency this offseason.