The Phillies could potentially be in the market for many players with qualifying offers. Should that deter them from putting pen to paper?
This year is the year the Phillies are expected to make noise in the free agency market. They did to an extent during the last offseason with Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta, but this offseason is a completely different ballgame. Philadelphia can and should be in the market for some of the best players in the game.
The catch with some of the bigger names on the market is that their original teams usually extend them a qualifying offer. This is a one-year deal worth $17.9 million, which if a player rejects and signs with another team, the original team gets draft pick compensation from the signing team. This article from MLB Trade Rumors breaks down all the new qualifying offer rules put in place by the newest collective bargaining agreement.
This year, seven players received a qualifying offer: starters Patrick Corbin, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel, reliever Craig Kimbrel, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and outfielders Bryce Harper and A.J. Pollock. Philadelphia could be interested in most, if not all of them.
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It should be noted that Manny Machado was not eligible for a qualifying offer as he was traded midseason. Had he stayed with the Orioles all season long, he would definitely have received one.
In the event that Philadelphia signs any of these players, they would give up their second-highest pick in the draft and $500,000 of international signing money. If they signed another, they would give up their third-highest pick, and so on.
When they signed Arrieta and Santana, who both had qualifying offers, they gave up their second and third-round picks in the draft.
Should this draft compensation deter the team from signing any of the players listed above? On one hand, they need to restock the farm system. It tumbled in league-wide rankings as many of the better players in the system either graduated to the majors who took steps backward in their development. Losing those high-round draft picks can make a real difference in the long run.
At the same time, the farm system isn’t as much of a priority as winning games. The team made a 14-win improvement this year, but the end of the season was a huge disappointment. To prevent a similar collapse in 2019, they need to improve their roster. Signing these players is the quickest and simplest, albeit more expensive, way to take a step forward.
Ultimately, the reason not to sign any of these players should be something other than the qualifying offer attached to them. If the team is truly ready to make the next step forward into contention, they have to make a splash this offseason one way or another.