Phillies: A case study of previous $200+million hitters

The Phillies might be in on Machado and Harper. Other big contracts of the like have been signed in recent years. Some have worked out and some haven’t.

There is no secret the Phillies are going to be in on one or both of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper this offseason. They are the two biggest names in a free agency class stacked with talented players. They are both still in their 20s with plenty of prime seasons still left in them, a rarity in baseball free agency.

Last offseason, we saw teams hesitant to give out big deals to aging players, making the hot stove look like a glacier. The Phillies signing Carlos Santana was one of the few deals handed out early on during the free agency process. Many players, including Jake Arrieta, didn’t even sign until spring training began.

This year will be far different with the likes of Machado, Harper, and plenty of other young, talented free agents on the market. They will command massive, likely record-setting contracts from whatever team they sign with. The Phillies certainly have the money necessary to sign one of these deals.

To get a better sense of the history of large contracts signed by hitters, let’s perform a case study of previous $200 million-plus contracts signed by hitters.

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez signed two $200 million contracts in his career. The first came with the Rangers in 2001 and the second came with the Yankees in 2007.

The first contract: 10 years, $252 million

How it worked out: Rodriguez was outstanding for the Rangers. He played in all but one game in his three seasons with Texas and put up big numbers. He hit .305 with 156 home runs and 395 RBI in Texas. His production earned him three All-Star appearances, two Gold Gloves, and the 2003 AL MVP award.

Rodriguez was one of the best players in the league during his time in Texas, but the team decided the money was too much and in 2004, the Rangers shipped him to New York after three seasons. In his first three seasons in the Bronx, Rodriguez hit 119 home runs and knocked in 357 runs. He added another AL MVP to his name in 2005 after he hit .321 with 48 home runs and 130 RBI.

After three seasons in New York, Rodriguez opted out of his contract and signed another big deal with the Yankees.

The second contract: 10 years, $275 million

How it worked out: In 2007, his first year after signing the new contract, Rodriguez earned his third AL MVP award. That season, he hit .314 with 54 home runs and 156 RBI.

From 2008 to 2010, Rodriguez had at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI each season and contributed to a World Series title in 2009.

However, after 2010, there was a steady decline in production. The end of his tenure in New York was riddled by injuries and a suspension for PEDs that cost him the 2014 season.

From 2011 to 2016, Rodriguez hit more than 20 home runs only once. That was in 2015 after he returned from the suspension and hit 33 home runs, knocking in 86 runs. He played out the tenth and final year of the contract in 2016, playing in just 65 games and hitting .200 with nine home runs and 31 RBI.

Albert Pujols

The next big contract was Albert Pujols’ contract with the Angels prior to the 2012 season.

The contract: 10 years, $240 million

How it worked out: Although Pujols has produced for the Angels since signing, the contract probably wasn’t worth it for the organization.

While with the Cardinals, Pujols was a perennial MVP candidate. Out of his 11 seasons in St. Louis, he was an MVP finalist eight times, winning the award thrice. He appeared in eight straight All-Star Games from 2003 to 2010. Despite being 32 years old heading into the 2012 season, the Angels gave him a 10-year deal, hoping he could continue his success at the plate for at least a majority of the contract.

Unfortunately for them, that has not happened. Pujols has hit .260 with 188 home runs and 653 RBI in seven seasons with the Angels. While the production has been good, it is a pittance compared to his previous numbers. In addition, he has been hampered by foot issues throughout. On top of that, even with Mike Trout on the team, it has only resulted in one playoff appearance: a sweep at the hands of the Royals in the 2014 ALDS.

Pujols only has one All-Star appearance and the last couple of years have not been great. In 2017, he was decent, hitting 23 home runs with 101 RBI. Still not Pujols-like numbers.

This past season showed that Pujols likely won’t get back to being an MVP-caliber player.  In 2018, he hit 19 home runs with 64 RBI. He was only able to play 117 games this year and it is up in the air whether or not he’ll ever play more than that again. The Angels still have him under contract for three more years, owing him $87 million.

Prince Fielder

Before the 2012 season, Prince Fielder signed a mega-deal to play for the Detroit Tigers.

The contract: Nine years, $214 million

How it worked out: Fielder’s first year in Detroit went according to plan. He hit .313 with 30 home runs and 108 RBI.

More importantly, the Tigers made it to the World Series. They were swept by the Giants, but still had the playoff success they were looking for. In the 2012 playoffs, Fielder was decent in the first two series but hit just .071 in the World Series.

After the 2013 season, Fielder was traded to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler. In Texas, Fielder dealt with multiple injuries. He played in Texas for three years, but only played one full season. That season was 2015 when he was an All-Star and hit .305 with 23 home runs and 98 RBI.

In 2016, Fielder was forced to end his playing career after having surgery on his neck.

In the end, Fielder wasn’t worth the big bucks, but that may have been different if he could have stayed healthy.

Joey Votto

Also in 2012, Joey Votto signed a contract extension in Cincinnati that will presumably lead up to the end of his career.

The contract: 10 years, $225 million

How it worked out: In his first year of the extension, Votto only played 62 games.

Since then, Votto has been worth the money. His lowest batting average came in 2018 when he hit .284. In the three years before that, Votto hit .314, .326 and .320.

His on-base percentage was .459 in 2015 and hasn’t been below .417 since. He’s hit 106 home runs and has 344 RBI since 2015.

He hasn’t been the most productive player in the league since signing the big contract, but he has been very consistent. He might not be worth the $225 million, but the Reds definitely aren’t wasting their money.

Robinson Canó

Robinson Canó signed a big contract with the Mariners after the 2013 season.

The contract: 10 years, $240 million

How it worked out: After moving to Seattle, Canó continued to be one of the best second basemen in the MLB, but it hasn’t led to any postseason success for the Mariners.

In five seasons with Seattle, Canó is hitting .296 with 107 home runs and 411 RBI.

This season, Canó was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance. Other than that, Canó has been everything the Mariners could have hoped for.

The only thing missing is postseason success. The Mariners hold the longest playoff drought in major professional sports. They haven’t made the playoffs since 2001. Canó was brought in to help that but hasn’t been able to put the team over the hump. He’s been an All-Star in three of his five seasons in Seattle, so it’s not all on him, but the team hasn’t had the success it expected in the years since Canó signed his contract.

In 2014, the Miami Marlins extended Giancarlo Stanton for a pretty decent sum of money.

The contract: 13 years, $325 million

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How it worked out: Stanton’s first two seasons with the contract went well in Miami, but he missed a lot of time due to injury. He hit 54 home runs and knocked in 141 runs in 193 games. He almost matched that BRI total in 2017.

Last year, Stanton’s .281 average, 59 home runs, and 132 RBI earned him the NL MVP award. Under new ownership, Stanton wanted out of Miami and the reigning NL MVP was traded to the Yankees before the 2018 season.

In his first season with the Yankees, he hit .266 with 38 home runs and 100 RBI. His regular season was great, but his 2018 and the rest of his contract will be decided by the Yankees’ postseason success.

They’ve already won the Wild Card game. Throughout this contract, Stanton will earn his money in the playoffs.

The Phillies need to make at least one big signing. They have the money to make both if they want to. The big contract will probably hurt the team in the latter years of the deal, but the dividends in the beginning will be well worth it.