Phillies: Matt Klentak, don’t drink the Kool-Aid with mediocre play

Is Phillies General Manager Matt Klentak overestimating the talent of the players on his team as the 2018-19 offseason approaches?

The Philadelphia Phillies just won a series this past weekend against the Miami Marlins. The last time they won a series? Try the first weekend in August. Who was the opponent, may you ask? The Miami Marlins.

Since that last series win, the Phillies have played like one of the worst teams in the National League. They were 63-48, 1.5 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves, and one game back of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s best record.

Entering play on September 18, Philadelphia has a record of 76-73. They have amassed a record of 13-25 over the last 38 games. Having dropped to 6.5 games out of the division, they have all but played themselves out of position, shown the fans their flaws, and have flopped on numerous opportunities to gain ground.

They do, however, still pose baseball’s seventh-best Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP), sixth-most strikeouts (from pitching) and are in the top third of the league in fewest walks allowed.
I was certainly surprised by the walks number, given that seems to be Vince Velasquez’s and Adam Morgan’s specialty.

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So we have now entered the point of the season, with 13 games remaining, and all of the “why has the attendance been so bad” statements have stopped. Why? This team hasn’t given the fans a real reason to believe in them. Style points don’t count in professional sports, but Philadelphia did not win “pretty” or “convincingly” early in the season, and it kept fans skeptical.

This team rode their pitching all the way to the month of August with little regard for anything else.

Much of that has folded, which further exposes all the hitting, fielding, and baserunning mishaps.

Great, so why am I writing this?

Sunday, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic (subscription required) posted a piece with some tidbits from General Manager Matt Klentak assessing the performance of the team over the course of the season.

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"“Look, we’re in the latter half of September and we’re still playing meaningful baseball games,” Klentak said before Sunday’s game. “Through the rebuild we’ve now gotten ourselves to a point where we’re relevant again. We were in first place for a good portion of the year. We’re playing games on national television again. People are talking about the Phillies. We have marketable players. There’s a lot of good to come.”“We will continue to get better, whether that’s through players in our system, the development of guys who are on this field already, trades that we might make in the future, free agents that we might bring in in the future, just general happenings in baseball operations.“The roster will continue to evolve and get more talented as we go. Right now, we’re in a position where our roster is talented enough to play meaningful games in September and that’s an important first step to where we were a year ago.”"

A few things:

First, you really aren’t playing meaningful baseball games anymore (as I wrote this sentence, Nick Williams grounded into a double play). Also, people are talking about the team, but right now, I’m not sure Klentak would want to hear it. It’s a lot of what I am writing.

To expound on the talent level of the roster, it’s not a one-sided game. As a collective, the team’s OPS is .715 and OPS+ is 90 (meaning, their OPS is 10 % worse than the league average, adjusting for ballparks). There are two players with a slugging percentage over .450. In today’s day and age, you have to hit for extra bases.

Walk all you want, but you have to get the runners home. Home runs are not going to cut it when you are 15th in MLB in that category. Philadelphia’s offense is eighth-worst in total bases, third-worst in hits, fourth-worst in doubles, and have the third-most strikeouts. Hence, they are in the bottom third of the league in runs scored.

If you can’t score, you better be able to field. Well, they haven’t. Their Defensive Runs Saved is by far the worst in baseball at -118. The next-worst team is Baltimore at -107. The teams above Baltimore are Toronto, the Mets, and the White Sox, all near the basement of the league. And the Phillies still have a 76-73 record.

Translation: the Phillies pitching is that good, if you haven’t heard me say it before. (side note, for as good as Aaron Nola has been, he has never pitched in the ninth inning)

Either the defensive alignment needs to change, or if they just can’t field, the player personnel must change this offseason. The cynic in the fan base believes that this team is the team we have seen in August and September, not the team from earlier in the season.

Sure, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper could help, but there needs to be a wholesale change. Two high-priced players likely won’t cut it. Not to mention, Harper possesses a -21 DRS, which would be second-worst on the team to not-a-left-fielder Rhys Hoskins.

So, Klentak, I have a message for you. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. If you do, the team could be in a dangerous position of mediocrity for a very long time. Make those trades and free-agent signings. Be Bold.