That Balls Outta Here
FanSided

Phillies top-five most improved players during 2018 season

By John Town

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 11: Maikel Franco #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws out Adam Eaton #2 of the Washington Nationals in the top of the third inning in game two of the doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park on September 11, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 11: Maikel Franco #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws out Adam Eaton #2 of the Washington Nationals in the top of the third inning in game two of the doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park on September 11, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 15: Pitcher Vince Velasquez #28 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after giving up a three-run double by JT Riddle #10 of the Miami Marlins during the second inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on September 15, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Marlins 5-4. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

Vince Velasquez

We all know Vince Velasquez‘s story. He started off his Phillies career with a bang with a 16-strikeout complete game shutout in his first start at Citizens Bank Park. Inconsistency and injuries became issues throughout 2016 and 2017 as he posted a 4.48 ERA, 4.51 fielding-independent pitching, 1.389 WHIP, and 3.5 walks per nine innings in that time. There was plenty of talk about moving him to the bullpen where his stuff could play up in shorter stints.

Instead, Velasquez was penciled in as the team’s No. 3 starter behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta coming into the season. While his 4.50 ERA may indicate he is still struggling, there are several underlying measures that tell the full story.

Overall this year, Velasquez is giving up hard contact 34.1% of the time compared to 41.4% of the time last season according to Baseball Savant. Opposing hitters are expected to have .229 batting average and .317 weighted on-base average according to Baseball Savant, both of which are significant drops compared to last year. While Velasquez has given up more fly balls, only 10.1% of them lead to home runs, while 20.8% did in 2017. Mark Simon of the Athletic (subscription required) wrote that Philadelphia’s defense (which is among the worst in the league) has cost Velasquez 14 runs while on the mound this year. Velasquez has a 3.66 fielding-independent pitching, which removes any influence fielders might have, a career-best and 12th-best among all NL pitchers with 140 or more innings pitched.

Velasquez has been worth 2.7 wins above replacement this year according to Fangraphs, which is also a career-high and third-best among Phillies pitchers. After this type of season, there is no reason to move him to the bullpen.

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