The Phillies have been in a major tailspin in August with their playoff odds cratering. How should this season be viewed if they fail to make the playoffs?
On Aug. 5, the Phillies were cruising and had a 63-48 record with a 1.5 game lead in the National League East. Their playoff odds were 70% with a 51.4% chance of winning the division according to Fangraphs. This was a major turnaround considering their playoff odds were just nine percent on June 9, when they were 32-30 with four games separating them and the division lead.
Now Philadelphia is once again on the downside. Since Aug. 5, they have gone 6-11 with a disappointing loss after disappointing loss. Their record has fallen to 69-59, three games behind the Braves for the division lead.
Perhaps even more alarming is that the Phils have fallen behind several other teams in the wild-card race. They are two games behind the Brewers for the second wild-card spot, with the Rockies ahead of them at one game back. The Cardinals, who hold the first wild card, and the Rockies have been heating up with 8-2 and 7-3 records in their last ten games, while Philadelphia is falling fast.
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This recent skid has cut into Philadelphia’s playoff odds considerably. They now have just a 35.5 percent chance to win the division and their overall chances to make the playoffs are 45.7 percent chance. Their playoff odds are now seventh-best in the National League, behind the Cubs, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers, and Diamondbacks.
It is now more likely that the Phillies miss the playoffs rather than make them.
Considering that, what should fans think about this season if it ends without a playoff berth?
Basically, how you view the end result of this season depends on the lens you use. If you look at it from pre-season expectations, this season should be viewed as a success. Right now, Philadelphia is on pace to win 87 games, while their projected win total at the beginning of the year was 78 according to PECOTA. This would be a nine-game improvement over their projected win total and a 21-win improvement compared to last year. In that respect, fans should be happy that they outperformed their expectations.
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On the other hand, watching this team, it is easy to find many deficiencies to gripe over. The biggest issue I and many others find with the team is defense. Their 99 errors and .979 fielding percentage are tied for the most in the league. They have a league-worst -100 defensive runs saved and -8.0 UZR/150. In every game, it is easy to spot defensive issues at all positions.
These defensive issues wouldn’t be a big deal if the offense was able to make up for it, but that hasn’t been the case. They rank 28th in batting average (.236), 19th in on-base percentage (.315), 23rd in slugging percentage (.394), 22nd in weighted on-base average (.308) and weighted runs created (538).
They strike out more often than every other team but two overall, and the most often when the bases are loaded. It is never a cohesive unit, with only a few players hitting well at the same time.
The defense and offense are especially frustrating considering how strong the pitching staff has been. Their 18.7 pitching wins above replacement per Fangraphs is third-most in the league, but their 11.3 wins above replacement for position players is just 19th. When the pitching does fail, the offense isn’t good enough to make up for it, leading to plenty of frustrating losses.
Altogether, say the season were to end today with Philadelphia missing the playoffs, how should 2018 be viewed? On a macro level, we should be happy that the team is playing well above their expectation level. However, as we dive into the details, while we can see the pieces of a strong team, it is understandable to be frustrated with them and how this season could turn out.