Phillies: Evaluating the case for Justin Bour over Carlos Santana

With Carlos Santana’s struggles this season, some have called for the Phillies to start Justin Bour at first base over Carlos Santana.

The bar has been high all season long for Carlos Santana after the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $60 million contract during the offseason. His signing has forced Rhys Hoskins to play in left field, further raising the bar for Santana. While his season hasn’t been bad, it’s certainly not up to his usual standard.

The team made a surprising pickup Friday when they made a waiver deal for Justin Bour with the Marlins. Bour was Miami’s starting first baseman all year long, but the Phillies want to use him as a weapon off the bench.

Considering Santana’s struggles, some fans have clamored to insert Bour into the starting lineup consistently, if not make him the full-time first baseman. Here we will see just how viable that would be.

The case for Bour

When you compare Bour and Santana’s stat lines, Bour leads in almost every category this season, but to varying degrees. Bour has two more home runs and a better batting average (.229 to .215) and slugging percentage (.413 to .396). He also has the slight edge in wOBA (.331 to .327) and defensive value, albeit they’ve both been bad (-8.4 to -9.0).

Bour fits the mold as the power-hitting first baseman. Not only does he have more home runs than Santana, he hits them at a higher rate. 20% of Bour’s fly balls leave the park, while only 11.5% of Santana’s do. Santana hits more fly balls, but he hits them at nearly half the rate Bour does. Bour also hits more line drives (19.6% to 14.7%) and generates more hard contact (38.6% to 35.1%).

Bour also performs much better against right-handed pitching compared to Santana. Bour has a .244/.362/.477 line with a 125 wRC+ against righties this year. Meanwhile, Santana has a .207/.359/.383 line with a 103 wRC+ when facing righties. If nothing else, there is definitely a case to platoon Bour.

Bour also has performed quite well against some of the best pitchers in the division in his career. Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia compiled Bour’s numbers, and they are tremendous:

One of the things to really like about Bour is his production against pitching within the division. He’s 8 for 21 (.381) with two homers, a double and three walks against Jacob deGrom. Yes, that Jacob deGrom. Bour has been one of the very best hitters in the league against deGrom during the righty’s stellar career. Bour has gone a respectable 5 for 17 (.294) vs. Noah Syndergaard. He’s reached base in 17 of 28 plate appearances vs. Julio Teheran. He’s 8 for 15 with two homers and a double against Mike Foltynewicz. He has a homer and a .385 OBP in 26 plate appearances vs. Stephen Strasburg.

As you can see, there is a strong case to put Bour in the starting lineup. What about the argument to keep Santana?

The case for Santana

One of the biggest criticisms of Santana this year has been that he doesn’t drive in enough runs. However, he has driven in more runs (66) than Bour (54) this year. Not only that, he is second behind Hoskins on the team in runs batted in. Simply put, if Santana’s job is to drive in runs, he’s done it:

Santana walks more than Bour but also strikes out in 10% fewer of his plate appearances. His strikeout rate is about in line with his last two seasons in Cleveland. Santana’s walk rate is also the highest since his 46-game rookie season in 2010. That has led to a .351 on-base percentage, which is better than Bour’s despite having a worse batting average.

More from That Balls Outta Here

• How will Rob Thomson manage the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2023?
• How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
• What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
• 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
• 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through

In addition, Santana’s isolated power is nearly identical to Bour’s with Santana’s just three points lower at .181. This means they both generate about the same number of extra bases per at-bats. Both are considered above-average in this regard, but you certainly can’t knock Santana for it.

Also, with the way Santana is hitting the ball, he should be performing significantly better than he has. His .218 batting average on balls in play is the second-lowest among all qualified hitters and well below his career BABIP of .265. Santana has an expected wOBA of .367, while Bour’s is .357 according to MLB Statcast. In other words, based on Santana’s average exit velocity and launch angle, his wOBA should be as good as Hoskins.

To look beyond the numbers, revoking Santana of his starting position would alienate him. He signed here with the understanding he would be the starter for the near future. There is no guarantee Bour is here beyond this year, leaving the team with an unhappy starting first baseman with a $20 million salary.