Five things we learned about the Phillies from the first half of 2018
The Phillies exceeded all expectations in the first half this season, leading the division at the break. Here are five things we learned from this half.
The Phillies were expected to take a step up from their 66-96 record last year. But did anyone expect them to be 11 wins over .500, hold the third-best record in the National League, and lead the National League East at the All-Star Break?
Thanks to steps forward by many players on the team, the team went from a 29-58 record at the All-Star Break last season to a 53-42 record at the break this season. They are the most improved team in the league compared to last year in terms of record and have put themselves in a great position for the second half.
Before the Phillies head into the second half, let’s take a look back at five things we learned from the first half of the season.
Aaron Nola is truly an ace
When Aaron Nola was drafted, his ceiling was a good No. 2 pitcher. Early in his career, he showed that potential. This year, he is rising above that ceiling into true ace territory.
In 20 starts this year, Nola has a 2.30 ERA, 2.60 fielding-independent pitching, 3.74 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 0.98 WHIP. Opposing hitters have a .196 batting average against Nola. According to Baseball Reference, Nola has been worth 5.9 wins above replacement this year. He has already tied his career WAR total prior to this year and could very well be an eight to nine-win player by the end of the season.
Nola is tied for first in wins and allows the fewest home runs per nine innings of any qualified pitcher. He is second only to Jacob deGrom in ERA and WAR and second to Max Scherzer in innings pitched. Nola ranks in the top-five in win-loss record, WHIP, hits per nine innings, strikeouts, ERA+, and FIP.
Nola was an obvious choice for the All-Star Game, impressing in his inning of work. He is an early favorite for the Cy Young award and should at least be a finalist when the season wraps up. Even if he doesn’t win, he has established himself as a top-tier pitcher this season.
Rhys Hoskins not quite an MVP, but still really good
Rhys Hoskins burst onto the scene last year with his record-setting home run pace, prompting many fans – myself included – to view him as an emerging top-tier talent in the league. Hoskins backed up that notion with his first month, posting a .303/.457/.528 line with four home runs, 19 runs batted in, 24 walks, and 29 strikeouts in 116 plate appearances in April.
However, his numbers drastically fell off in May, hitting just .161 with a .551 OPS in May. He ended the month with a broken jaw, missing close to two weeks. When he returned he was back on fire, hitting eight home runs and carrying a 1.088 OPS in 20 June games.
In 14 July games, Hoskins started to struggle again. He has just two doubles and was hitting .232 before the All-Star Break. You wouldn’t know it by his Home Run Derby performance though, hitting 37 in the first two rounds before being eliminated by Kyle Schwarber.
Overall this year, Hoskins has a .252/.363/.456 line with 14 home runs, 56 runs batted in, a 121 OPS+ and 123 wRC+. His season numbers aren’t quite up to the standard he set last August, but he is still quite a good hitter at the major-league level. He could take off again in the second half, but even if his season stays the course, he will still be a well-above-average player.
Young starters are coming along nicely
One of the biggest question marks this season was the back half of the starting rotation. Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta were more or less known quantities, but the group of Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, and Zach Eflin had little certainty about them. Each had shown potential previous years, but they all still had plenty of work to do.
Lively fell out of the rotation early, but the trio of Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eflin have proved more than capable back-end relievers. Eflin has seen the biggest jump, going from a 5.85 ERA his first two years to a 3.15 ERA this season. In 12 starts, he has been worth two wins above replacement with a 1.078 WHIP, 3.03 fielding-independent pitching, and 4.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Healthy and stronger than ever, Eflin has had a career revival.
Pivetta’s 4.58 ERA this year has been deceiving as he has a 3.75 FIP and a 3.44 skill-interactive ERA. He has struck out 10.56 batters per nine innings while walking 2.80 per nine, both of which are notable improvements compared to his rookie year. His 3.767 strikeout-to-walk ratio is 10th-best in the NL and his K/9 is sixth-best. After being a below-replacement pitcher last year, he has been worth 1.4 wins above replacement in 20 appearances.
Velasquez’s overlying numbers are also deceiving with a 5-8 record and a 4.39 ERA. His other ones have been much closer to his first season in Philadelphia with a 27.9 percent strikeout rate, 8.9 percent walk rate, 3.65 SIERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.78 FIP. In terms of fWAR, he is on pace for his highest total yet with 1.7 in 18 starts, already close to eclipsing his total of 2.2 in 24 starts in 2016.
As a whole, the back end of the rotation has not only been reliable but one of the main reasons they are in first place in the division. They will need to continue this performance to keep the team in the race, but they have done well up to this point.
Bullpen not a strength, but a weakness
Prior to this season, the Phillies were expected to lean heavily on a bullpen that showed promise at the end of last year and was bolstered by the additions of Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek. They were tasked with picking up the slack the starting rotation left.
At the halfway point, the roles have been reversed. While the starting rotation has cruised, the bullpen has been mired in inconsistency. As a group, their 2.6 fWAR ranks 14th, 4.08 ERA ranks 17th, and 1.31 WHIP ranks 15th.
More from Phillies News
- How will Rob Thomson manage the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2023?
- How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
- What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
- 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
Several players expected to be key cogs in the bullpen have floundered. Hector Neris couldn’t throw his splitter anymore and was optioned to the minors. Adam Morgan seemingly emerged as a late-inning piece last year, but he has been below-replacement. Luis Garcia started off strong but fell off before hurting his wrist. Hunter missed the first month of the year and has been disappointing since with a 4.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Thankfully, not everything has been doom and gloom. Seranthony Dominguez has shown no issue adjusting to the major leagues and has become an effective high-leverage reliever. Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos have also both done well and turned into de factor setup men for Dominguez. While Neshek missed the first three months of the year, he has shown no signs of rust with just four hits and no walks allowed in six outings since returning.
Even though there have been some bright spots, the bullpen still needs plenty of work for this team to continue to succeed. They have done exceptionally well in one-run games, but this won’t continue if the bullpen falters down the stretch. Acquiring some help before the trade deadline will be key.
The playoffs are well within reach
As mentioned on the first slide, almost no one expected the Phillies to be in playoff contention, let alone in first place, at this point of the season. In a best-case scenario they could push for a wild-card spot, but to be where they are now was not planned on. Now the playoffs are well within reach for this team.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- How will Rob Thomson manage the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2023?
- How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
- What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
- 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
- 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through
The Phillies, Braves, and Nationals are considered the main contenders in the division. Washington is 5.5 games behind Philadelphia in the standings, but their run differential and the massive amount of talent on their roster both say they should pick up the pace in the second half. Meanwhile, the Braves have been a thorn in Philadelphia’s side all year, keeping pace with them at just a half game back in the division. They have proven they are legitimate contenders in the division.
On the other hand, you still can’t count out the Phillies. Their schedule in the second half is far less imposing than the first half, especially compared to that rough month of June.
If they keep up their pace from before the break, they will win 90 games, which should put them right in the heart of the playoff chase.
Next: Did Phillies make mistake signing Carlos Santana?
For the first time in years, the Phillies will be playing important baseball in the second half of the season. They have a great chance not only to make the playoffs but even win the NL East this year.