Phillies: Jake Arrieta finally falling back down to earth?
After three straight poor starts for the Phillies, Jake Arrieta may finally be pitching more like we expected him to this season.
Jake Arrieta was a godsend for the Phillies early this season. He had a good first month of the year with a 3.49 ERA despite only spending the second half of spring training with the team. His month of May was even better as he posted an NL-best 0.90 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP.
Even though Arrieta had plenty of success, his underlying numbers indicated that his numbers would eventually take a step back. While he had a 2.16 ERA through May, his 3.14 fielding-independent pitching and 3.98 fielding-independent pitching both indicated that his ERA should be much higher.
Perhaps what gave it away the most was Arrieta’s skill-interactive ERA. He had a 4.27 SIERA through May, which was worse than his SIERA last year with the Cubs. That year caused many to be concerned about Arrieta’s future.
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Arrieta’s last three starts have not gone well at all. He has a 7.98 ERA, surrendering 18 runs in 14.2 innings. He has given up a home run in each of them, while he gave up just two the first two months of the year.
Arrieta posted the worst game score of the season Friday night against the Brewers of just 11. He allowed a season-high eight runs in 3.1 innings on seven hits, a home run, two walks, and a hit batter. He took the loss in the 13-2 blowout, evening his record to 5-5 this season.
While Arrieta allowed eight runs, only four were earned. Scott Kingery made two errors and Rhys Hoskins committed another behind him.
Theirs and other’s defensive miscues led to huge innings for the Brewers. This has been a recurring theme this year for Arrieta as of his 38 runs allowed, only 27 have been earned.
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Arrieta gets impacted by the defense behind him more than any other pitcher on the team. Unlike the others, he is reliant on the rest of his team to make outs. The 32-year-old simply doesn’t have the stuff to strike batters out like he did when he won the Cy Young. He only has a 16.2 percent strikeout rate, instead focusing on his second-best 56.3 percent ground-ball rate. His approach this year has been to keep the ball on the ground and let his team finish the job.
The problem with that strategy is that Philadelphia’s defense simply isn’t good this year. They have the second-most errors (54) and second-worst ultimate zone rating (-16.3) and defensive runs saved (-52) of all teams. In principle, inducing lots of ground balls and letting your team do the work is a good strategy. That strategy falls to pieces when you play for a defensively-inept team.
After Friday night’s start, Arrieta has a 3.33 ERA, 3.75 fielding-independent pitching, and 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Those numbers are about in line with his final numbers from last year when he had a poor first half but a strong second half with the Cubs. If his final numbers for the year stay around here, it’s about what we would hope for.
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On the other hand, Arrieta now has an xFIP of 4.15 and SIERA of 4.35. If his on-the-mound performance trends towards these numbers, the hot takes about the Arrieta contract being a bust will come pouring in. It may not even wind up being his fault, instead falling on whether or not his defense can actually make a play.