Phillies: Odubel Herrera flailing since on-base streak ended

Odubel Herrera started off the year as a borderline MVP candidate. Now, the Phillies center fielder is struggling at the plate.

For the first nearly two months of this season, Odubel Herrera was among not only the best center fielders in the league but the best hitters overall. Through May 19, he had a .353/.420/.558 line with seven home runs and 30 runs batted in. There was a discussion about him being in the early MVP conversation.

Herrera’s success was fueled by an on-base streak stretching back to last season. He reached base safely in 45 straight games before his streak ended May 20 against the Cardinals. His on-base percentage ranked 11th in the league at the time.

Since that streak ended, Herrera has not been even close to the same player. In the 21 games since, Herrera has collected just 13 hits and three walks. Prior, he had 55 hits and 17 walks in 42 games. He has certainly played himself out of the MVP race and will need to turn things around soon to warrant an All-Star appearance.

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Much of Herrera’s struggles have come due to plate discipline issues. During his streak, he had a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 15.3 percent strikeout rate. After, he has a meager 3.4 percent walk rate and whopping 29.5 percent strike. Herrera has swung at more than half of pitches and made contact on 72 percent of those swings in this span. His swinging strike rate has jumped five percent since the streak’s end. He has been a culprit in the team’s free-swinging ways.

Unsurprisingly, far fewer batted balls have resulted in hits for Herrera. He has a .224 batting average on balls in play in recent weeks. His soft contact rate has jumped ten percent and line-drive rate has fallen in this time, which has led to the lower BABIP.

Herrera is out of the lineup Wednesday night against Rockies lefty Tyler Anderson. This comes despite the fact that Herrera has a -11 wRC+ against lefties but a 28 wRC+ against righties since May 20. Neither number is particularly good, and baseball logic points towards sitting a struggling left-handed hitter against a left-handed pitcher anyway.

Manager Gabe Kapler attributed Herrera’s struggles to a timing issue with his leg kick: [quote via Matt Breen of Philly.com]

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"“There has been a significant drop in his numbers and statistics, we’re all seeing that. And we’re seeing his rhythm and timing is off. He’s a rhythm and timing hitter, very similar to how Rhys Hoskins is a rhythm and timing hitter. So when that rhythm and timing is disturbed and disrupted, you just don’t see as clean swings. But we know that rhythm and timing tends to come back.”"

This was an issue that plagued Herrera last year as well. Last May, Herrera had a paltry .183/.196/.257 line in 27 games. He walked just once the entire month. The team went 6-22 that month, and Herrera was certainly part of the problem.

However, once Herrera got his timing back, he played some of the best baseball of his career. From June 3 on, Herrera had an .887 OPS and 130 wRC+. In 88 games, he had 11 home runs, 51 runs scored, and 42 runs batted in. His .318 batting average ranked 14th among qualified players in this time frame.

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Seeing Herrera struggle in recent weeks is frustrating knowing just how good of a player he can be. Hopefully, in the near future, he can find his rhythm at the plate and return to his hot hitting.