The Phillies have leaned on Hector Neris as their closer for just over a year now. How long will he continue to fill that role?
Since trading Jonathan Papelbon to the Nationals in 2015, the Phillies have cycled several players through the closer position. Ken Giles appeared to be the closer of the future after the Papelbon trade until he was dealt to the Astros that offseason.
The role cycled through many players to start the 2016 season until former manager Pete Mackanin settled on career middle-reliever Jeanmar Gomez. Gomez started 2017 in the role but lost it soon after. Mackanin settled on Hector Neris, whom fans said should have had the role from the beginning of the season after leading the team in appearances the year prior.
Neris has performed admirably as the closer for the last year or so, but now his future as the team’s closer isn’t as clear. He completely imploded in Sunday’s walk-off loss to the Nationals and was the losing pitcher in the gut-wrenching Opening Day loss to the Braves.
More from Phillies News
- How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
- What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
- 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
- Could Rich Hill become ‘Jamie Moyer 2.0’ in Phillies rotation?
I went on the Philadelphia Sports Table podcast Thursday night to discuss Neris’s future as the closer as well as several other topics. Give the show a listen to hear about the Phillies and all the other Philadelphia sports teams!
In regards to Neris, I said he has been solid overall as the closer. He is 33-for-37 in save opportunities since 2017 started. In 90 appearances in that span, Neris has a 3.12 ERA, 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.29 WHIP.
He has been worth 1.3 wins above replacement combined per Fangraphs.
However, he certainly has his flaws. Neris has always been a high-walk pitcher. He walked 3.36 batters per nine innings in 2016, then walked 3.13 per nine last year. This year, his walk rate ballooned to 5.52 walks per nine. You could see how that can negatively impact the team when he walked in the tying run during Sunday’s game.
In addition, Neris’s splitter hasn’t been quite as effective this season. It hasn’t had quite as much horizontal movement compared to the last two years. His splitter had a corrected value of 1.80 in 2016 and 1.04 in 2017; this year it has been 0.85. It isn’t a huge drop, but since Neris throws it more than half the time, any dropoff is a bit concerning.
More from That Balls Outta Here
- How Phillies’ Ranger Suárez is set to build on 2022 postseason dominance
- What can Philadelphia Phillies expect from Bryson Stott in 2023?
- 3 Reasons to get excited for Phillies’ Craig Kimbrel signing
- 11 Free-agent deals the Philadelphia Phillies wish fell through
- Phillies-Mets owners’ rivalry grows after shocking Carlos Correa deal
I told Jeff and Len that I believe Neris will continue to serve as the closer unless he completely implodes in the near future. I said later that I expect the team to upgrade the bullpen at the trade deadline, but not necessarily at the closer position. On the other hand, the team could make an upgrade in the back end of the bullpen if Neris continues to be plagued by bad outings.
There will be plenty of big names available to sign. Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel, and Zach Britton are all slated to be free agents this offseason. Kimbrel could sign a record deal for a relief pitcher, but Philadelphia has the money to offer it should they fail to land one of the big fish like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper.
If the team starts to lack confidence in Neris this season, they could also fill the closer role with someone else on the team. Before his rehab setback, I would have said Pat Neshek could serve in the role. Another option could be Seranthony Dominguez, but I said on the show that I expect him to fill a Miller-like role where he pitches in a high-leverage situation no matter the inning. He would be just as valuable, if not more, in that role compared to the closer.
Next: Maikel Franco could be reaching potential
For now, Neris is the Phillies closer, but if he has more outings like he did on Sunday, things may start to change.