How will Phillies match up against Nationals in first meeting?

The Phillies and Nationals meet for the first time this season starting Friday. How will the Phillies fare in the series?

Remember last year when the Phillies and Nationals seemingly had one series every week against each other in April? Whoever makes the MLB schedule must have hated it as much as we did because it has taken over a month of this season for the two teams to meet. Now they match up for their first series starting Friday night.

Washington has been underwhelming this season. They were supposed to run away with the National League East this year, but they currently are just fourth in the division with a 16-16 record.

Much of Washington’s struggles can be attributed to injuries to their top offensive contributors. Daniel Murphy hasn’t played all year after knee surgery last offseason. Adam Eaton started off the year hot for eight games before suffering a bone bruise to his left ankle. Anthony Rendon only made it two weeks into the season before suffering a toe bruise.

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Bryce Harper carried the team early on this season but is hitting just .191 in his last 15 games. He still has a ridiculous .409 on-base percentage in this stretch and has a league-leading .451 OBP this season. Harper also leads the league with 10 home runs and 39 walks.

The starting rotation has been strong as expected. Max Scherzer continues to dominate with a 1.79 ERA in seven starts.

He leads the league in wins (6), strikeouts (65), fielding-independent pitching (2.04), and strikeouts per nine (12.9). Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and Gio Gonzalez have also been strong this season. Even former Phillie Jeremy Hellickson has been pitching well, posting a 3.00 ERA in four starts.

For the Phillies to win this series, two things have to happen: the offense has to score runs early off Washington’s starters and Philadelphia’s starters need to can’t allow too many runs. If the Nationals are able to score four or five runs off the starting pitchers, that’s all the cushion that rotation needs.

Philadelphia is sending out Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Jake Arrieta to face Gonzalez, Roark, and Scherzer. Any of those three pitchers can shut down the Phils and make the game easy. Considering how inconsistent their offense has been, it could be smooth sailing for this trio of Nationals.

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In two starts against the Nationals last year, Pivetta allowed eight runs in 9.2 innings. Ryan Zimmerman hit him especially hard, going 4-for-6 with a double and home run. However, this is a different Pivetta we are seeing this year, so things could change.

Velasquez has also struggled against the Nationals in his career, posting a 6.14 ERA in four starts. Unsurprisingly, walks were the issue as he issued nine in 22 innings. Harper has dominated Velasquez, going 5-for-6 against him with five runs batted in. Zimmerman has also lit up Velasquez, racking up a double and home run in 11 career plate appearances. After struggling his last two starts, Velasquez needs his A-game.

Arrieta has the tall task of matching up against the two-time reigning Cy Young winner in Scherzer. While with the Cubs, Arrieta had a 5.40 ERA, 3.61 fielding-independent pitching, and 1.76 WHIP in 25 innings against the Nationals. Harper has a .545 OBP against Arrieta while Matt Adams has a .854 OPS. Arrieta really has to pitch like he did in his first four starts if Philadelphia has any chance.

If anyone is going to be the spark plug for Philadelphia, it most likely will be Odubel Herrera. He carries a 32-game on-base streak heading into Friday night and has easily been the team’s best hitter as of late.

Herrera has actually hit well against the righties Scherzer and Roark in his career. He has a .303/.410/.394 line in 39 career plate appearances against Scherzer and a .448/.515/.621 line in 33 appearances against Roark.

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This series could go either way depending on how the starting pitchers perform. Whichever one breaks first will most likely be the one to lose the game.