Phillies signing Jake Arrieta looking like best decision early on
By John Town
It is still early in the season, but right now the Phillies choosing to sign Jake Arrieta over anyone else has been the best decision.
The Phillies already surprised the league in free agency when they signed Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million contract back in December. They upped the ante during spring training when they were able to sign Jake Arrieta to a three-year deal worth $75 million.
There were concerns when Arrieta signed the contract. He turned 32 just before signing with Philadelphia and was showing signs of decline in 2017. Arrieta had the best season of his career in 2015 when he won the Cy Young, and some were worried he has and will continue to trend downwards.
It is still early in the season, but so far signing Arrieta has paid major dividends. He has picked up three wins in four starts, posting a 1.82 ERA that ranks 11th among qualified pitchers. His 0.93 WHIP ranks 16th, just behind Aaron Nola. He already has been worth 0.7 wins above replacement according to Baseball Reference.
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Arrieta is coming off a start Wednesday night that could have been disastrous. The team made three errors, leading to two unearned runs. He walked in run with the bases loaded and no outs. However, he was able to escape any major damage and kept the game in hand. He wound up logging his third quality start of the year, going seven innings while allowing just one earned run on four hits and two walks.
Arrieta’s value to the team extends beyond just what he does on the mound. He easily has the most experience of anyone in the rotation. Arrieta is trying to provide a positive example for some of the younger pitchers on the team: [quote via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia]
"“More than anything, you want to lead by example,” he said. “Part of the mentorship and trying to help these guys progress is exactly that – going out there, having a plan, being prepared and executing. You can talk to guys until you’re blue in the face, but until you can go out there and put up results and show these guys that what you do in between starts really pays dividends, then guys really start to buy in.”"
When you look at how the other top starting pitchers on the free agent market have fared, the Arrieta signing looks even better. Yu Darvish, who replaced Arrieta in Chicago, has a 6.86 ERA in four starts with the Cubs so far. He has gone past the fifth inning just one time, allowing at least four runs in three of his four starts.
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Darvish, who is about half a year younger than Arrieta, signed a six-year, $126 million contract with the Cubs. When Arrieta’s deal is done, Darvish’s will only be halfway finished.
Before Arrieta signed, some wanted the Phillies to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. Both weren’t in Arrieta or Darvish’s tier, but they wouldn’t have cost as much money and would have signed a shorter deal. Lynn signed a one-year $12 million deal with the Twins days before Arrieta signed, while Cobb joined the Orioles on a four-year, $57 million contract just a week before the season started.
Lynn has made four starts for the Twins so far, allowing at least five runs in three of them.
Lynn has a 7.71 ERA and a 20 percent walk rate. Opposing hitters have a .278 batting average against him, leading to a WHIP of 2.04.
Cobb hasn’t fared any better in Baltimore. His 13.11 ERA is more than double the team’s win total so far this year (six). He has struck out just four batters in 11.2 innings while allowing three home runs.
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There’s no way all these pitchers will continue to be this bad, but so far Arrieta has easily outperformed all of them. For all the worries we had about him, he has proven them wrong so far.