2017 was a complete step back for Phillies prospect Dylan Cozens. Does the outfielder still have a chance to find a major-league role?
2016 saw two Phillies prospects break out in Double-A Reading: first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfielder Dylan Cozens. The two combined for 78 home runs and 241 runs batted in by seasons end, propelling the Fightin’ Phils to the Eastern League playoffs.
While the two had similar seasons in 2016, they diverged in 2017. Hoskins dominated the International League, hitting 29 home runs with a .966 OPS in 115 games before moving up to the majors. There he hit 18 more home runs in 50 games, finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting.
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Meanwhile, 2017 was not nearly as nice to Cozens. While he hit 27 home runs, his other numbers were poor. He had a .210/.301/.418 slash line with a 35.8 percent strikeout rate. Cozens’ 194 strikeouts were the most of any IL hitter.
Strikeouts were an issue for Cozens in Reading as well. He racked up 186 strikeouts in 134 games, which was tied for first in the Eastern League last year as well.
After the 2016 season, Cozens was praised for his power, but his high strikeout total left doubts about whether or not he could consistently tap into that power. Last year in Lehigh Valley, he showed that those strikeouts continue to be an issue. Without as lofty of a home run total, he has started to fall down prospect lists.
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This year, Cozens should be back in Lehigh Valley, hopefully finding a way to reduce that strikeout total. If Triple-A pitchers can strike out Cozens at such a high rate, then major-leaguers could induce them at an even higher rate. Cozens would certainly be able to connect on some mistake pitches and drive them a long way, but those don’t come nearly as often in the majors.
As it stands now, Cozens most likely profiles as a fourth outfielder who could platoon in right field. However, it definitely depends on how much Cozens can limit his strikeouts. The Phillies are placing a heavy focus on players with high walk rates and low strikeout rates.
If Cozens can’t find a way to bring down his strikeouts, he may not be able to make it onto the major-league team.
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Even if Cozens does find a way to cut down on his strikeouts to a reasonable level next year, getting him to the majors will be a tough task. While he has a 40-man roster spot, the outfield is already crowded enough with Hoskins, Aaron Altherr, Nick Williams, and Odubel Herrera. He may get dangled as trade bait, or could get promoted if someone else gets traded or injured.