Phillies: Can the starting rotation survive without a veteran?
Phillies management publically covets a starting pitcher, but how badly do they need it?
Phillies general manager Matt Klentak will tell you he’d be lying if the team didn’t want to add a starting pitcher going into the 2018 season. After starting 11 different pitchers last year the organization is looking to stabilize the rotation with a veteran at the top.
Rumors have connected the Phillies to some of the top free agent arms on the market, including Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn. Arrieta’s price tag is going to be astronomical, and at the age of 31, the Phillies are unlikely to give him the long-term deal agent Scott Boras desires.
Unless Klentak overpays Arrieta for two years it’s unlikely Arrieta ends up in red pinstripes.
There’s been no public interest in Yu Darvish, Jeremy Hellickson, or Matt Garza which could mean the chances Klentak adds a starter turn slim.
Trades are always an option with young arms such as Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, and Aaron Sachez on the market, but do the Phillies want to part with your young talent in the middle of a rebuild?
Considering all those factors, it’s becoming more likely the organization doesn’t add a starter. I think the chances of them signing one is still greater than not, but the odds are slipping by the day.
If the organization doesn’t make a move for a starter they’ll return 8 of the 11 starters from last year, all of whom are no older than 27 years old. Jerad Eickhoff leads the group having just turned 27 but he’s made only 64 major league starts over three years.
Assuming no prospects earn a spot in the rotation and no additions are made by the front office, here’s where the starting rotation stands:
- Aaron Nola
- Jerad Eickhoff
- Nick Pivetta
- Ben Lively
- Vince Velasquez
Each of those arms has potential, and some feel Velasquez has more to unlock having flashed greatness when healthy. Nola appears to be the closest thing to a proven ace, but beyond him the questions around Eickhoff, Pivetta, and Lively loom.
Pivetta and Lively had tremendous minor league careers as prospects and have shown the ability to be a quality back-end starter.
Others contending for a spot in the rotation will include Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and Mark Leiter Jr.
Thompson has disappointed as a major leaguer coming from Texas with immense pressure to replace Cole Hamels. With a 6-8 record as a starter over two seasons Thompson has struggled with his command and has failed to stay on the major league roster. He’ll get his shot this year, but the organization could look to move him into the bullpen like Adam Morgan.
Like Velasquez, Eflin has looked strong at times and horrid at others while battling injuries. Acquired in the Jimmy Rollins trade three years ago Eflin had a stretch of games in July 2016 where he pitched two complete games and struck out 17.
Injuries to his knees and pitching shoulder will likely have him start in Triple-A next season, but he’ll get his shot.
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The most puzzling contestant in the starting rotation battle is Leiter Jr., who bounced between the rotation and bullpen. A rookie with major league bloodlines, Leiter Jr. showed brilliance in a June spot-start where he allowed only three hits in six shutout innings.
He had another great appearance against the Marlins with seven shutout, one-hit innings.
It’s likely Leiter becomes the longman in the bullpen with a handful of spot-starts, but Gabe Kapler will give him a chance to compete.
Next: What do the Phillies need to do in 2018 to get a wild card?
The Phillies have quantity, but not enough quality in their starting rotation. Klentak added veteran relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter to bolster the bullpen, but his quest for a starter hasn’t been as fruitful. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if the Phillies failed to add a quality starter, but it would behoove the entire organization to find someone to fill a starter role.