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Should the Phillies inquire about Rays starter Chris Archer?

By John Town

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 24: Chris Archer #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 24, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 24: Chris Archer #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 24, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /
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Should the Philadelphia Phillies inquire about a possible trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for their top starter, Chris Archer?

It’s no secret that the Phillies need to bolster their starting pitching. General manager Matt Klentak has admitted as such, but he has also remained steadfast that they don’t want to break out their wallet and start throwing tons of money at a starter this offseason. This means another year of Aaron Nola, maybe one or two veterans, and whatever young arms aren’t injured.

That is, unless, the team goes out and makes a trade for a younger, cheaper option for their starting rotation. A name that is often thrown around when the hot stove gets cooking is 29-year-old Rays starter Chris Archer.

This offseason, the Braves, Brewers, Twins, Cardinals, and Cubs are all teams that have shown interest in Archer. Should Philadelphia be among them?

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Archer has been a model of consistency in each of the last four seasons, starting 32, 34, 33, and 34 games in each season. He posted an ERA above four in 2016 and 2017, but his 3.40 fielding-independent pitching, .325 batting average on balls in play, and 4.15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2017 all indicate he performed much better than that ERA would suggest.

Archer signed a six-year extension with two option years as the 2014 season started.

The most money he will make in any one year is $11 million in his second option year. Archer was worth 4.6 fWAR in 2017, which Fangraphs equates to about $36.6 million of value. Even if Archer’s numbers dip, he will still likely give surplus value relative to his contract.

Considering that kind of surplus value, any trade for Archer would likely require a significant return from the Phils. This could include major-league talent like Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, or Aaron Altherr, prospects like Sixto Sanchez, Scott Kingery, and Adonis Medina, and/or international signing money. While this may seem like a no-go, the Manny Machado rumors indicate the team may be willing to part with some of their talent.

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One thing that may bring down the necessary return for Archer would be packaging Evan Longoria in the deal. While this would usually bring the price up, it’s Longoria’s contract that is the kicker here. He is signed through 2022, when Longoria will nearly be 37 by the season’s end, with a team option for 2023. He made $13 million in 2017 and his salary jumps all the way up to $19.5 million by the end of the deal. This is the last offseason before Longoria hits the “10-5” marker, meaning he will have a full no-trade clause. It’s likely now or never for the small-payroll Rays to try and shed Longoria’s contract.

If there’s any team that can take on Longoria’s salary, it’s the Phillies. They will likely have to upgrade at third base at some point, and Longoria is certainly an upgrade over Maikel Franco. However, Longoria’s production slipped in 2017, and if it continues to, that is a lot of money committed to an older, declining player.

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Acquiring Archer would certainly boost the rotation both next year and in the long-term, but it would certainly have to come at a cost. Taking on Evan Longoria’s contract would certainly lower that cost, but it would bring a potentially-declining Longoria in for even longer than Archer would be here.

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