Five starting pitchers the Phillies could pursue in free agency

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PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 13: Starting pitcher Jake Arrieta #49 of the Chicago Cubs looks over to first base as he pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on August 13, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

It is no secret the Phillies need some major help in their rotation. These five starting pitchers could conceivably help the rotation next year.

This season, Phillies starting pitchers have ranked towards the bottom of the league in most major statistics. Their 4.86 ERA and 4.82 FIP both rank eighth-worst in MLB while their 6.9 fWAR is the 11th-fewest. Their 1.40 WHIP is 11th-highest while their 2.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio is in the middle of the pack at 17th of all 30 teams.

Aaron Nola has established himself as the ace of the rotation this year, but otherwise there are a lot of question marks. Jerad Eickhoff has been inconsistent while injuries are putting Vince Velasquez’s future in question. The rest of the rotation has been filled with an assortment of rookies with varying degrees of success.

It’s clear that Philadelphia needs to add a free-agent starting pitcher to the rotation this winter if they want to improve next season. There are several options on the market with varying degrees of cost needed to bring them here. Let’s take a look at just five of those options.

Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta is one of the top names in free agency this year, but unlike other top players, the Phillies may not be out of the running. ESPN’s Buster Olney said on the Baseball Tonight podcast that Philadelphia is one of four teams that could be serious contenders for Arrieta this winter.

Arrieta’s start of the season was concerning as he had a 4.35 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has turned it around since the All-Star Break as Arrieta has posted a 1.59 ERA with 51 strikeouts and 17 walks in 56.2 innings. This second half is like the Arrieta that won the Cy Young in 2015 and it will give him enough leverage in free agency to get a pretty lucrative deal.

Arrieta has one of the higher upsides on the free agency market, second only to Yu Davish. Philadelphia could be a landing spot for Arrieta, but they will have to give him a lot of money to do so. He also probably wants a deal closer to five or six years, which is a dangerous contract length for a player who will be 32 when the season starts next year.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn has returned this year from Tommy John surgery fairly well, but how well you gauge this season depends on how you look at it.

On the more positive side, Lynn has a 3.14 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while opposing hitters are batting just .214 against him. His 3.1 bWAR is the best among Cardinals pitchers and would make him the second-best player on the Phillies this season behind only Aaron Nola.

On the other hand, Lynn’s fielding-independent pitching is 4.77, the highest of his career by far. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career while his walk rate is the highest it’s been. Lynn is also surrendering a lot more home runs, with batters hitting home runs on 14.8 percent of fly balls against Lynn. His 1.2 fWAR would make him the fourth-best pitcher on Philadelphia’s pitching staff, slotting just behind the now-traded reliever Pat Neshek.

Lynn doesn’t have the most leverage in free agency because of how he has performed after returning from Tommy John surgery. He has a strong track record to go off of, but teams will have to buy into the notion that Lynn can bounce back. The hesitance with Lynn is just enough to give Philadelphia a fighting chance to sign Lynn in free agency.

Alex Cobb

Cobb is another pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery this year with mixed results. On the brighter side, he is walking just 5.8 percent of opposing hitters. In addition, his 3.72 ERA is above-average compared to the league with an ERA- of 87.

Marco Estrada

Marco Estrada fits the Phillies well in terms of the contract he is likely to receive. He is currently playing on a two-year, $29 million contract with the Blue Jays and he should receive something similar this year in free agency. At 34 years old, Estrada isn’t going to receive a long-term deal that other pitchers might this offseason.

More from That Balls Outta Here

While Estrada financially makes sense, his performance has been shaky. He received his current contract after a 2015 season that saw him collect 3.6 bWAR and place tenth in Cy Young voting. While his WAR total was nearly identical last year, this year his performance has taken a step back. Estrada has a 5.23 ERA in 28 starts this year.

However, digging into Estrada’s numbers a bit more shows his ERA may just be a string of bad luck. His expected and regular fielding-independent pitching is fairly similar to 2015 and opposing hitters have a batting average on balls in play against him of .312.

His BABIP is indentical to his teammate Marcus Stroman, who has a 3.11 ERA and could receive some down-ballot votes for the Cy Young this season.

Estrada’s stats this year could be a fluke. The analytics-inclined Phillies front office may take a chance on him because of this, which could hurt or help them next season.

Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is having a decent season – his 4.03 ERA is the lowest it has been in any full major-league season since his standout 2013 campaign – but it is certainly not the kind that will launch him into a bigger contract. In 27 starts with the Padres this year, Chacin has a fielding-independent pitching of 4.52 (107 FIP-), 1.30 WHIP, and 1.8 bWAR.

Chacin is with the Padres on a show-me, one-year contract worth just $1.75 million. According to Fangraphs, he has been worth $12.1 million this season, but by no means will he receive a contract anywhere near that size. He may get something around five to seven million dollars, but that is by no means a guarantee. If the Phillies want to go for the budget pitcher, Chacin is certainly one.

Next: Phillies claim RP Kevin Siegrist

There are certainly more starting pitching options in free agency, these are just five of them. It’s possible another starter could sign here in Philadelphia; I just hope one does.

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