Phillies Opposition Roadblock: Chicago Cubs
The Phillies had a ton of momentum heading into the Dodger series. However, they were swept out of LA over the weekend after a disastrous Saturday night ninth inning. While they are hoping for a bounce back series, the task will be difficult against the defending World Champion, Chicago Cubs.
Well, it could have gone better. I do not need to explain how because that would insult the intelligence of the people reading this article. I have never seen a team that has won six in a row look as incompetent in the many phases of the game the Phillies did this past weekend in LA.
Corey Seager did not impact the Phillies the way that Justin Turner did or even the likes of Andrew Toles. The Phils did everything they could to turn Toles into a future Hall of Famer. Still, Seager had a quietly solid weekend. He only played the first two games but found a way to leave an impact on the game. He was 2-6 with three walks and two runs scored in those two games.
Phils Grade: B
The Phillies actually handed Brandon McCarthy his shortest, least effective start of the season. He went through five innings, allowing eight hits (one of them a three-run homer off the bat of Brock Stassi) while walking one and striking out three. The Phillies would add another run off the bat of Andrew Knapp against the LA bullpen giving them what most thought to be an insurmountable three-run lead. Then, Hector Neris imploded and McCarthy escaped with a no-decision, while his team caught their third consecutive win.
Phils Grade: A-
The Team: Chicago Cubs
Sadly, my friends, it is not going to get any easier the next four days. The Phillies are able to leave the nightmare in LA behind but are heading to the (not always) friendly confines of Wrigley Field. The defending World Champion Chicago Cubs (winners of six of their last ten) are awaiting the Phils and their three-game losing streak.
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The Cubbies currently sit atop the NL Central by one game over the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds are only two games behind.
The Cubs are currently fifth in baseball in runs scored and top ten in team batting average and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage). Their lineup, for lack of a better term, is loaded.
Names like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Ben Zobrist highlight a star-studded group. And this year, to make it scarier, Jason Heyward is off to a strong start.
Their pitchers are top ten in ERA throughout baseball (3.77), but jump down to 18th in the game in their own stadium (3.89). That number could be a bit skewed since they have only played nine home games. It is a dream matchup as the Phils offense has not been a juggernaut on the road.
The Position Player: Kris Bryant
I listed the big names on the last page. I do not have to convince anyone reading this how dangerous the Chicago lineup will be over the course of the next four days. Looking at the list, however, there is one obvious name that just always finds a way to stand out.
Kris Bryant is perhaps the most dangerous young hitter in all of baseball. The 25-year-old is currently in his third season as the Cub third baseman. And let me reassure you that his first two were pretty ridiculous.
As a rookie, he slashed .275/.369/.488 with 26 homers and 99 RBI. It gave him his very first All-Star birth and the NL Rookie of the Year Award. He added those to his trophy case with his 2013 Golden Spikes Award and Dick Howser Trophy, naming him the best amateur and college baseball player respectively.
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He went and outdid himself in 2016 when he lined up a tidy .292/.385/.554 with 39 bombs and 102 RBI. Even more impressive was his elimination of strikeouts. In 2015 he whiffed 199 times but reduced that number to 154 in 2017. The season resulted in what most believe will be the first of many MVP Awards.
Against the Phils, Bryant has been a tough customer. Through 13 games, he has put up a .333/.351/.630 line with 4 homers and 13 RBI (more than any other non-NL Central team). The Phils have also been able to strike him out 22 times in 57 plate appearances since his 2015 debut.
Bryant will crush fastballs anywhere in the zone. He does not chase the pitch either, which is shown by his impressive 10.7 walk rate in 2016. Offspeed and breaking pitches are where to get him, but if those pitches are not working or pitchers get behind him, he is waiting to crush a fastball. That is what the Phils need to avoid.
The Pitcher: Jake Arrieta
Again, I have to admit this one was sort of a no-brainer when looking at who the Phils will face this week. The pitching lineup for the Cubs is Brett Anderson, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and John Lackey. While the Phillies have actually had some decent luck against all four, they are still faced with some tricky matchups.
Above all else, Arrieta stands out much more brightly. Since becoming a Cub, Arrieta has been one of the best pitchers in the league. There is no argument that 2015 was his true coming out party. Arrieta was as dominant as any pitcher in recent memory. He posted 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with a 22-6 record, but those numbers would not be outdone by the two no-hitters he threw.
The Cy Young Award put expectations at an all-time high for the now 31-year-old. He has not let it go to his head. His 18 win 2016, 1.08 WHIP and 3.10 ERA were nothing to sneeze at, although they did pale in comparison to the previous year.
He currently leads Chicago in wins (3) and strikeouts (38). So far, in 2017, he is 3-1 with 4.66 ERA, and while it is way too early for statements like this, the Cubs are hoping this is not a steady career decrease. The Phils hope to make those thoughts creep into their heads on Wednesday night.
He has a career 3-2 record when facing the Phils in five games started with a 3.98 ERA. The Phils have managed five homers off him, which is high in comparison to his other numbers. However, the only two current Phils with homers off him are Aaron Altherr and Daniel Nava. Maikel Franco is 2-2 in his career off the righty.
Arrieta boasts a six-pitch arsenal. A look at his early velocity shows a slight decline, but that could simply be based on the time of year and still stretching out. His approach is predicated on the sinker. The Phils will want to try and make that come up. He likes to use his slider and curveball off of that pitch. And from time to time, the righty has difficulty with his command.
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Arrieta’s production will land somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 seasons. The Phillies hope to make it worse than both this Wednesday night.