Phillies Checklist for Success for the 2017 Season
Phillies regular season is approaching quickly, so let’s figure out what needs to happen in order for 2017 to be considered a successful season.
Let’s get this out of the way now: the success of the Phillies this season will not be determined by wins or losses. While it would be great if they could bump up their win total by at least a couple of wins this year, it is by no means a requirement. If other things occur that better help the team’s future, then this season can be considered a success.
If 2017 is to be considered a success, these are the things that need to happen.
Philadelphia’s Young Pitchers Move Forward
The Phillies saw a lot of promise in the rotation in 2016. Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez, and even Zach Eflin all flashed at least some potential moving forward. However, there are still a few roadblocks that need to be overcame first.
In Nola’s case it’s pretty simple: can he bounce back from his elbow injury that shelved him for the last two months of the 2016 season? He made the first step in the right direction Thursday in his spring training debut when he struck out one batter and didn’t allow a run in two innings of work. Obviously we will need to see Nola pitch in the regular season and go deeper into games before we can consider him 100% back to normal.
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Velasquez’s biggest issue in 2016 was his inability to last deep into games. While he struck out 27.6% of batters, it caused him to throw a lot of pitches early on. This caused him to be pulled by the end of the sixth inning in nearly every outing. Velasquez will look to improve his efficiency by using his curveball more often, but it will take time to see if that will actually work.
For Eflin, he also needs to prove that he healthy again after undergoing double knee surgery last offseason.
He got off on the wrong foot as knee soreness held him out of a bullpen session earlier in spring training. Thankfully, he seems to be back on track and is poised to make his spring debut in the next week or two.
Barring an unforeseen injury to someone in the big-league rotation, Eflin is set to start the year back at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. There he will look to reproduce his early 2016 numbers – 2.90 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .197 batting average against – that brought him to the major-leagues in the first place.
Philly’s Offense Improves as Well
The Phillies offense wasn’t good by any stretch last year as their -134.9 Fangraphs offensive value was the worst in all of the major-leagues. PECOTA’s projections for the offense this year aren’t much friendlier as it projects the Phils to finish with a .244/.298/.387 slash line in 2017.
If Philadelphia’s offense is to take a step in 2017, they will need serious contributions from veteran outfielders Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders. Both were brought in to improve upon the team’s outfield that was downright awful besides Odubel Herrera. With Kendrick expected to be in the top of the order and Saunders right in the middle, both will be key cogs of the offense this year.
Perhaps the biggest offensive question mark is third baseman Maikel Franco. After a strong rookie season, fans had high hopes for the then-23 year old heading to 2016. Unfortunately, Franco did not produce the results expected of him as he finished with a .733 OPS.
Franco is now working with hitting coach Matt Stairs to improve upon his dismal .306 on-base percentage and below-average 6.3% walk rate. The hope is that with the additions of Saunders and Kendrick as well as the emergence of first baseman Tommy Joseph, the offensive burden won’t be entirely on Franco’s shoulders and he will be able to boost his offensive performance.
The Prospects Continue Along the Development Curve
Several Phillies prospects hit a snag during the 2016 season, none more publicized than J.P. Crawford. The team’s consensus No. 1 prospect hit a wall upon reaching Triple-A Lehigh Valley, posting a meager .244/.328/.318 slash line over 87 games. His trademark plate discipline was still evident, but it was clear he struggled upon reaching the International League.
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In 2017, Crawford will still be one of the youngest players in Triple-A at 22 years old. If he can continue to stay patient at the plate, he should be able to bounce back and perform like the top-tier prospect he is.
Nick Williams and 2015 first-round pick Cornelius Randolph both saw their own struggles in 2016 as well. Williams is in camp with the major-league team as he is on the 40-man roster and he is working on his approach – or lack thereof – at the plate with hitting coach Matt Stairs. Injuries derailed Randolph’s season, and as he said last offseason, he is still growing and developing.
Meanwhile, the team hopes to see other prospects build on their success. Dylan Cozens and Rhys Hoskins have impressed manager Pete Mackanin in their time with the major-league club in spring training. It will be interesting to see if either – or perhaps even both – are able to carry over at least a portion of their ridiculous home run numbers at Double-A Reading last year to Lehigh Valley this season.
Sell, Sell, Sell at the Deadline
This is where the burden shifts from the players to the front office this season. General manager Matt Klentak made several acquisitions this offseason which had multi-faceted goals. On one hand, he wanted to improve the team in the short-term. At the same time, he wanted to potentially better the team in the future as well.
Klentak traded for veteran pitchers Clay Buchholz and Pat Neshek along with left fielder/infielder Howie Kendrick. In addition, he signed reliever Joaquin Benoit, outfielder Michael Saunders, and offered a qualifying offer to Jeremy Hellickson, which he accepted.
Now Klentak has several potential trade chips on the roster, and he acknowledged that during the offseason: [quote via Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly]
“But it certainly isn’t lost on us that if the standings are looking the other way at the end of July, we have a lot of meaningful players in the last years of their contracts — not just pitchers, but a number of players that could be trade chips.”
Last year Klentak had the same goal in mind, but the only player he was able to trade was Carlos Ruiz, and that came after the non-waiver deadline. He nearly traded Hellickson, but the deal never came to be.
What made the inability to trade Hellickson sting less was the fact that the Phils could offer him a qualifying offer and receive a first-round pick if here were to sign somewhere else. That isn’t the case this year thanks to the new collective-bargaining agreement which prevents players from receiving a qualifying offer two years in a row. If the team doesn’t trade Hellickson at the deadline this year, he will walk next offseason and the team will get nothing in return.
Philly’s other impending free agents likely aren’t worth a qualifying offer unless they have a ridiculously strong season, so they won’t get any draft-pick compensation from them either. That means if the Phillies want any return for these players, they will have to deal them at the deadline.
Next: Phillies 2017 Season Preview: Freddy Galvis
Obviously the players have to be performing well enough to warrant being traded, but if they are, a trade would free up a spot on the 25-man roster for one of the plethora of prospects expected to be at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make the trip east to Philadelphia.