Phillies Post-2016 Top 30 Prospect Rankings: No. 1-No. 5
By John Town
No. 1: Shortstop J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford has been the top prospect in the Phillies system for years now, ranking No. 1 after the 2014 season, just a year after joining the club. Crawford ranks as the No.2 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. The 2013 first-round draft pick is a sound player in nearly every aspect of the game.
Crawford started off this season back with Double-A Reading doing everything he’s always done. In 36 games with the Fightin’ Phils, Crawford had 30 walks and 21 strikeouts. Crawford had an on-base percentage that was nearly .400, but he didn’t hit for much power with a slugging percentage that was lower than his OBP.
When the Phillies promoted Crawford to Triple-A, he struggled upon joining Lehigh Valley. Through June 30 in Triple-A, Crawford had a poor OPS of .595. He was quite better in July, carrying a .794 OPS with a .300 batting average. From there, Crawford’s season went back downhill, carrying a .192/.292/.250 line from August on.
One thing to note about Crawford’s season is that he was one of the youngest players in the International League. According to Baseball Reference, he was 5.5 years younger than the average player in the IL. When he returns there next season, Crawford should perform much better with another year of experience under his belt.
After the season wrapped up, Crawford underwent surgery to remove what the team called a “loose body” from his left knee. According to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, the Phillies’ director of player development Joe Jordan said Crawford “has had a smooth recovery and will have a normal offseason.”
Even if this year was a down year, Crawford still exemplified all the skills that should make him an above-average, if not better, major-leaguer. His best asset is his plate discipline, and it only continued this year. Overall, Crawford walked 12.9% and struck out 14.5% of the time this season. This relatively even strikeout-walk ratio helps him get on base even when he struggles to hit.
Thanks to his plate discipline, Crawford’s hitting ability plays up from above-average to a plus. When you’re only swinging at good pitches, you’re going to make good contact. Adam Hayes of Baseball Prospectus wrote Crawford has “ample bat speed with a line-drive stroke that produces sound contact skills.” Even if he isn’t particularly flashy at the plate, Crawford has the tools to be a consistent hitter at the plate.
What makes Crawford all the better is that his defense is nearly, if not as good, as his offense. Even though his speed is only average, Crawford has a good first step and covers a lot of ground at shortstop. With his above-average to plus arm, he has the ability to make some impressive defensive plays like the one below:
The biggest gripe with Crawford’s defense has been the careless mistakes he makes on routine plays. In his first full season with the Phillies in 2014, Crawford made 29 errors in 559 chances, a 5.2% error rate. This year, Crafword made just 19 errors in 565 chances, a much-improved 3.4% rate. If Crawford follows this trajectory, he should only become a more sound fielder as he matures.
The one tool that Crawford still struggles with is his power. He stands 6’2 180 with a lean, wiry frame. The hope is he can still add some strength since he will be just 22 next season, but that storyline can only be pushed for so long. Even if he does add enough strength to carry him through a major-league season, he will only be able to hit about ten home runs a season, if that.
Next: Phillies Post-2016 Top 30 Prospect Rankings: 6-10
What makes Crawford such an elite prospect is his well-rounded arsenal of average to above-average tools. While Crawford doesn’t posses a truly elite aspect of his game, every aspect is good in its own right. Crawford is on the cusp of reaching the major-leagues with a debut likely coming in 2017. Right now he could be a first-division regular, and his ceiling is much higher.