Phillies: Eighth Overall Pick Historically Bears Few Fruits
With the Phillies season officially over, we now know where they will pick in next summers MLB Draft
A 71-win season has left the Phillies drafting in the top 10 for the fourth straight year. They’ve seemingly done well, grabbing Cornelius Randolph, Aaron Nola, and most recently first-overall pick Mickey Moniak.
This will be the first time the Phillies have ever owned the eighth-overall pick. It is another chance to acquire baseballs next superstar, and make sure he is a Phillie for many championship seasons.
Looking back at the history of the eighth overall pick, there are only a few success stories to emerge out of the high school and college ranks. Just 33-of-52 players (68%) drafted with the eighth pick have made the major leagues, which is the third-lowest rate for a top 10 pick. To put that in perspective, 90% of first overall picks at some-point make the majors.
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Only one pitcher drafted with the eighth pick has ever won 100 games, that being former Phillie Dick Rutherven when the Twins selected him out of Cal-Fresno. Mike Leake is the only pitcher drafted eighth-overall with an ERA under 4.
There has been slightly more success with hitters with this pick, the most notable being Todd Helton in 1995. Pete Incaviglia, Jay Bell, and Drew Stubbs are the only other players who went on to have decent careers after being drafted eighth-overall.
More recently, Gordon Beckham, Mark Appel, and Francisco Lindor have fallen to eighth. Lindor finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting last season with Cleveland, and was named to his first all-star game.
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With any young player there will be more risk than guarantees behind their careers. While historically the eighth pick does not turn-out as many major league prospects as the top pick, it still provides the Phillies with a decent chance to find the next big piece.