Phillies prospect Nick Williams had a down year in 2016 after a strong debut in the farm system. The outfielding prospect has plenty of room to improve before he can reach his full potential.
More than a year after joining the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade, outfielder Nick Williams is the lone player from the trade yet to make his major-league debut. Unlike other prospects from the trade, Williams still has to find sustained success.
When Williams debuted in the Phillies organization, he benefited from Reading’s hitter-friendly park. His power flashed as he clubbed four home runs with a .536 slugging percentage in 22 games to round out the year.
After his strong 2015, Williams did well on preseason prospect lists. Most outlets considered him the No. 2 prospect in the Phillies system behind J.P. Crawford. Baseball America ranked Williams the No. 27 prospect in the MLB. Fangraphs’ KATOH projection system projected Crawford as the 59th-best prospect in the league.
However, Williams’s power overshadowed serious issues at the plate. He walked 7.7% of the time to start out 2015 with the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders. While Williams improved his plate discipline in the first part of the year, it fell apart when he reached Reading. His walk rate fell to 3% and strikeout rate slightly increased to 20%.
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Williams’s struggles with discipline only worsened when he moved up to Triple-A Lehigh Valley this year. His strikeout rate climbed to 25.8%, and he still walked at a problematic 3.6% rate. Without any semblance of plate discipline, he hit for a meager .258/.287/.427 line.
Williams managed to have some success this year thanks to his plus raw. Out of his 128 hits this year, the outfielder hit 13 home runs and 52 extra-base hits overall.
Thanks to his raw power, Williams has the potential to hit in the middle of a lineup. Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs said Williams has “the bat speed and swing path to be at least a plus power guy, and it’s becoming a matter of when, not if, his power surpasses his hit tool.” If Williams can at least somewhat work the count, it should be enough for his bat to shine.
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On defense, Williams has the speed to play center field. Despite that, he lacks some of the finer aspects of manning center field. J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, after our own Matt Veasey asked about Williams and J.P. Crawford, said Williams has “never shown the reads, routes and feel for center to play there more than sporadically.”
Williams projects as a corner outfielder unless he makes some serious strides in the field. With a fringe-average arm, left field appears to be a likely landing spot for the 23-year old.
On the basepaths, Williams has the speed to swipe double-digit bases per year. However, his instincts both stealing and taking extra bases on hits need to improve.
Matt Winkleman of Phillies Minor Thoughts compared Williams’s struggles to Maikel Franco prior to this season. According to Winkleman, “his raw ability allows him to get away with making mistakes.” We can see Franco’s struggles with plate discipline this season, and Williams is in line for the same fate if something doesn’t change in 2017.
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Williams may get the chance to start out the year with the Phillies and battle for a starting job in the majors. However, big-league pitchers will make him look silly if he continues his aggressiveness at the plate. Williams will have to use his plus raw power in-game if he wants to succeed.