The Philadelphia Phillies are getting situated as the spring training game schedule has begun. Established stars not competing for positions are gearing up for the first regular season contest on March 27 versus the Washington Nationals.
Many young players and those battling for roster spots would like to make a good impression in Clearwater. How will players who don't have minor league options, such as Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy, perform with the pressure to make the Phillies' Opening Day roster?
As far as those individuals who will be with Philadelphia when the regular season begins, who could improve from last season? Who could maintain or build on their solid play in 2024? Which players could regress? Let's look at some candidates for who will be better and who will not in 2025.
2 Phillies players who will be better in 2025
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott regressed last year following his breakout 2023 season. In December, Jim Salisbury of PHLY reported that according to Dave Dombrowski, the second baseman played most of 2024 with a sore elbow (subscription required). The injury prevented him from driving the ball.
The 27-year-old saw a drop in many offensive statistics. Stott's wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) was .296, lower than his .323 from 2023. His launch angle increased from 10.1 to 14.0 degrees, indicating he hit more fly balls.
Another statistic where Stott saw a decrease in production was in his barrel rate, with a 2.6 percent barrel rate, down from 3.6 percent a year before. He also had trouble hitting fastballs, with his slugging percentage against the pitch type dropping from .439 to .350. He posted a wOBA of .294 against fastballs, significantly less than his .351 two years ago.
Stott needs to rebound from last year to provide the Phillies with a reliable bat in the middle of their lineup. According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, manager Rob Thomson may change the batting order, with Stott predicted to hit sixth in the Opening Day lineup. He has hit around this spot regularly in his career. He may not exceed his 2023 season, but he is projected to be better offensively than last year.
Orion Kerkering
Thomson is expected to return to a committee approach for the closer situation. Orion Kerkering has an opportunity for more work in the late innings of ball games this year after the Phillies lost Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman in free agency.
The young reliever was reliable for the club in his first full major league season in 2024, with a 2.29 ERA and 16 earned runs. He had a 1.08 WHIP in 63 innings. The Phillies fifth-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft finished the regular season with 74 strikeouts and 17 walks.
The Phillies bullpen did not pitch well during the NLDS versus the New York Mets. However, Kerkering was the only reliever used in all four games during the series. He finished with a 2.45 ERA, the lowest among the seven relievers used. The right-hander's five strikeouts also led the bullpen.
Kerkering will compete with José Alvarado, Jordan Romano and Matt Strahm for late-inning work. The 23-year-old has the most upside among these relievers, considering his age. He couldn't convert either of the two save opportunities he had last year. His most work as a closer was in the minors in 2023 before he received a late-season promotion. He saved 14 of 15 games, including seven of eight opportunities in Double-A with the Reading Fightin Phils.
Alvarado was inconsistent during the second half of last season. Will Strahm regress as predicted by the projections following an excellent 2024 season? Will Romano recapture his reliability as a closer before his injury-plagued year? Kerkering has an opportunity to be the Phillies' best reliever in 2025.
1 Phillies player who will be worse in 2025
Nick Castellanos
Nick Castellanos experienced a drop-off in production from 2023 to 2024. His home run total dropped from 29 to 23, and he had 86 RBI, less than the 106 RBI he totaled two years ago.
Castellanos' ISO (isolated power) was .177, far less than his .204 ISO two years ago. His slash line of .254/.311/.431 was also down from the .272/.311/.476 line he posted in 2023. FanGraphs' Steamer projections have his numbers remaining similar to last year. However, could his 2025 stats resemble his first season in Philly? He missed some time in 2022 as he played 136 games, his fewest with the organization.
Castellanos agreed to a five-year deal with the Phillies in March 2022. The right fielder is entering the fourth year of his $100 million contract. The deal he agreed to with the organization has been viewed as a contract that would be difficult for the team to get rid of if they wanted to. He has been the subject of trade rumors this winter and in previous years.
The trade speculation has turned out to be nothing more than that. Castellanos must avoid declining this year, as that will further confirm the contract has been too expensive for his production level. Philly's lack of consistent production from its outfield group has been a cause for concern. If the 32-year-old has a bad year, the worry will only heighten.