The Philadelphia Phillies 2026 season has been a rollercoaster. Under Rob Thomson, it felt as if the bottom had fallen out and the year was already lost. Then, Don Mattingly came in and thankfully restored hope. Throughout this wild journey, we've learned a lot about the Phillies, and specifically the impact of some of their offseason decisions.
As far as the addition front, Dave Dombroski was relatively restrained. Last year's luxury tax bill gave him 56 million reasons why he needed to watch his pennies. That doesn't mean that all of his decisions were wise. Philadelphia will still be a maximum taxpayer, so while Dombroski restrained some of his urges it doesn't mean all of his value signings were money well spent.
On the flip side, there were some solid moves made and, perhaps more importantly, some tricky mistakes that needed to be avoided.
Retaining Kyle Schwarber saved Phillies
Pretty obvious, but it's worth pointing out that Kyle Schwarber was Philadelphia's best move. The Phillies could've tried to get cute and use a rotating DH. They could have tried to get a younger or more versatile player. They could have looked to save money. Instead, they looked at the fact that they had a 56-homer bat that fits their lineup like a glove and didn't overthink things. Now they might watch him reach even greater home run heights.
The Phillies weren't fooled into a mistake by re-signing Harrison Bader
The Phillies went out and strengthened their outfield at last year's deadline when they acquired Harrison Bader. Bader's 2025 was the best year of his career, with him clocking 17 dingers and slashing .277/.347/.449 over a career-high 146 games.
That impressive line obscures the fact that he put up a 12th percentile average exit velocity, 12th percentile strikeout rate, and a 36th percentile hard hit rate — all of which produced an expected batting average of .220, an expected slugging percentage of .374, and an xwOBA of .297.
Now, Bader has hit .157/.184/.349 since signing with the San Francisco Giants for two years, $20.5 million. The oft-injured 32-year-old has also missed about a month of action with a hamstring issue. Bringing him back would've been a disaster, and this is proof that sometimes a team's best moves are the ones not made.
The Phillies' handling of their outfield was a mistake
The Phillies needed to figure out a way to revitalize their outfield, but in the end, all they really did was give Adolis Garcia $10 million. Garcia's a defensive upgrade from Nick Castellanos, though the bar was pretty much on the floor there. Counting on a guy with a combined 89 wRC+ from the start of 2024 through the end of last season to be a productive hitter was a miscalculation. Through 49 games, Garcia has a 71 wRC+ this year, which shouldn't be a shock.
Furthermore, the lack of outfield firepower being added has put a lot of pressure on Otto Kemp, who has wilted under it. Simply put, Dombrowski needed to show more urgency here.
Committing three years to J.T. Realmuto might've set the Phillies back
The catching market is tough. Even with ABS, defensive-minded catchers hold a decent amount of value. J.T. Realmuto still has some defensive chops, but the way his bat has fallen off this year makes it clear that this is a mistake.
The veteran backstop has a 61 wRC+ this year, nuking almost all of his value behind the plate. Even if you believe that he can rebound a bit and get closer to last year's mark of 94, how much longer can you reasonably expect him to produce anything with the bat? The Phillies signed him through his age-38 season, and the writing is on the wall that he'll be a $15 million per year anchor sooner rather than later if he isn't already.
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