Zack Wheeler's rehab quote highlights how delicate his Phillies return will be

As the Philadelphia Phillies stumble out of the gate, finding a fix for the struggling starting rotation could be a key component to getting back on track. That might be exactly what's on the horizon with Zack Wheeler's 30-day rehab window coming to a close.

While there's technically still time for Wheeler to make a sixth rehab start, the expectation is that he will rejoin the Phillies for this weekend's upcoming rematch against the Atlanta Braves. That will mercifully push Taijuan Walker out of the rotation and into the bullpen. Replacing Walker with anyone at this point seems like it would be a huge boost to a rotation that ranks 27th in baseball with a 5.23 ERA.

But will Philadelphia be getting the Wheeler of old, the kind of guy who can truly match Cristopher Sanchez and lead the rotation?

Zack Wheeler will give the Phillies a boost, but don't count on him returning to his vintage form... yet

Wheeler's velocity was down significantly at the start of his rehab stint, and now, with his MLB return on the horizon, it still hasn't returned.

There's been some thought that the cold weather for much of April may have hampered his velocity when he's been on the mound, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old also acknowledges that a high-octane fastball just might not be something he has at the current moment.

“I’m a high 90s guy, mid 90s guy, and it’s not there right now. You kind of have to pitch a little bit more when that happens,” Wheeler said.  “You’ve got to move the ball around and you’ve got to hit your spots, you’ve got to fool guys a little bit more than kind of just rearing back and throwing. I think that’s probably going to be the biggest adjustment, if that is still down when I do come back. Like I said before, hopefully this warmer weather allows me to kind of get back to close to where I used to be at least, and hopefully get there throughout the season.”

As he stated, this could be a process that lasts weeks or months, or it could be something that ultimately never comes to pass. Fortunately, Wheeler has a deep, six-pitch arsenal, and over the years, his breaking pitches and off-speed stuff have been lethal. Will they continue to be if they're playing off a 93 miles per hour heater versus a 97 miles per hour one?

It's going to be about changing speeds, mixing things up, and locating pitches much more than raw stuff for Wheeler in order to be effective. While you never want to draw too much from rehab stats, there have been some good and some bad from Wheeler through his five outings.

He's thrown 20 innings and struck out 23 batters, though the majority of these guys are Double-A hitters. He's also posted a 5.85 ERA. The epitome of that was his April 14 start against the New York Yankees' Double-A affiliate, the Somerset Patriots. In the outing, he struck out nine but also allowed three runs, coming away impressed with New York's top prospect, George Lombard Jr., in the process.

His April 19 appearance also came against Somerset and didn't go quite as well, with the three-time All-Star allowing four earned and being taken deep twice, once by Lombard Jr., over four innings.

A hard-throwing Wheeler obviously makes you feel better, but that isn't to say that he isn't able to be effective or that the velocity won't eventually return. A pair of former MLB starters, Alex Cobb and Dillon Gee, recently weighed in on their recoveries from the rib removal surgery used to cure thoracic outlet syndrome.

Cobb noted feeling "rattled" by his initial velocity dip, but provided optimism by saying that he quickly found that hitters reacted to his stuff in the same way as before he underwent the procedure. Gee recalled losing weight due to the restrictive diet one has to follow during the recovery period and posited that it could be impacting Wheeler's velocity now.

What is certain is that Wheeler's inevitable return isn't simply penciling in another ace at the top of the rotation. He'll be an improvement, surely, but the Phillies will have to manage him closely, and perhaps work through a different plan of attack for as long as he's without peak velocity. If they can do that, there's a pretty good shot that a starter with Wheeler's talent and experience can become a positive factor.

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