It has been a decade since the Philadelphia Phillies last had a homegrown pitching prospect with the hype of Andrew Painter. The 2021 first-round pick's eventual MLB debut will be the most anticipated start for a Phillies prospect since Aaron Nola in 2015. Before the 2025 season, it was widely expected that the 22-year-old righty would reach the majors during the summer as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery.
That's no longer the case, as the struggles of MLB Pipeline's No. 10-rated prospect this season have many Phillies fans labeling Painter's 2025 campaign a big disappointment. It should'nt be viewed that way though, at least according to a handful of people within the organization.
Garrett Stubbs, Rob Thomson view Andrew Painter's 2025 season as a success despite lofty expectations
Before this season, Painter had not appeared in an affiliated baseball game since September of 2022. That's a shocking two-plus full years without minor league game action, thanks to his July 2023 Tommy John surgery. Getting back onto a mound and staying healthy for the full season should be a win in itself and labeled as a success, according to Painter's Triple-A catcher Garrett Stubbs.
"He's coming off of Tommy John," Stubbs said. "So for me, success in him having a full season and being able to get the innings in and post every single week, to me that's a successful season. ... Just him being healthy and getting up every single week and getting to pitch is a success for him. So it's been good to see him do that, progress throughout the whole season."
Garrett Stubbs on what he’s seen this year from Andrew Painter at Triple-A
— On Pattison (@OnPattison) September 1, 2025
(Via @TimKellySports) pic.twitter.com/n0tGlt09hF
This return season for Painter is all about progression as Stubbs alluded to. Although Painter's 5.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP are undoubtedly disappointing, his impressive makeup won over the approval of the veteran Stubbs.
Manager Rob Thomson put together a similar quote about how perhaps everyone was expecting too much from Painter (subscription required) in his first full season in a few years, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer's Lochlahn March.
"I think we can all look back and think, 'Man, probably should have expected this,'" Thomson said.
Rob Thomson was candid about the expectations placed on Andrew Painter for his first season back from Tommy John surgery.
— Lochlahn March (@lochlahn) September 5, 2025
“I think we can all look back and think, ‘Man, probably should have expected this.’”https://t.co/FMDs1VLlsw
Thomson's right, as very rarely do pitchers pitch well in their first couple of years following the reconstructive Tommy John surgery.
Painter has shown this season that he clearly has the ability to put together quality starts, but his command of the baseball must improve. He's allowed 45 walks over 109 innings this season, including three in his most recent shelling. It's been five starts since Painter last issued less than three walks in a start. That won't fly in the majors and is one of the biggest reasons Painter is still pitching for Triple-A Lehigh Valley in September.
As long as he puts up respectable numbers in the Grapefruit League next spring, Painter is an excellent bet to make the Phillies' Opening Day starting rotation, especially with uncertainty surrounding Zack Wheeler's 2026 status. Although Painter unexpectedly struggled to earn an MLB promotion in 2025, at least east he's finally back in action and still on the doorstep of getting the call next season.