Why Jayson Stark believes Phillies’ biggest strength could quickly become a weakness

The Philadelphia Phillies have depended on their starting pitching as one of the key components to their success over the past four seasons. However, unlike previous years, there are concerns about whether the position group can be reliable in 2026, as it has demonstrated.

There are changes within the rotation: Ranger Suárez signed with the Boston Red Sox in the offseason. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been replaced as the top two options by Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. Philadelphia will have one of its top prospects, Andrew Painter, featured in its rotation as well. As you can see, a lot of changes.

During a March 4 appearance on 97.5 The Fanatic's Unfiltered with Ricky Botallico and Bill Colarulo, The Athletic's Jayson Stark mentioned his concerns about the Phillies starting rotation as Opening Day nears.

"The biggest question is, what is this rotation going to be? It's the foundation of all the winning [that the Phillies] have done... [in] this whole run [in] these five seasons, I don't think there's ever been more questions about that rotation in all this time.

"Cristopher Sánchez [and] Jesús Luzardo, they look great, but when does Zack Wheeler come back? Are we sure he'll be the same when he does? I've talked to Zach, [and] he is so confident he's going to be himself, but there's a wide range of outcomes with that surgery that he had."

How concerned should Phillies fans be over state of starting rotation for 2026?

Wheeler's 2025 season came to an abrupt end after he sustained a blood clot in his right arm. After undergoing surgery for that, he received a diagnosis of venous thoracic outlet syndrome and needed to have another procedure, which ended his season a few weeks before the start of the playoffs.

Wheeler may be available a few weeks after Opening Day. There is concern that the veteran won't regain his previous dominant form as their top starter. Fans shouldn't expect him to perform like an ace shortly after his first couple of outings this year. Hopefully, he resembles his prior self the more he pitches over the course of the regular season, but the surgery is a major concern.

Considering the jump Sánchez made last season, finishing as the runner-up for the NL Cy Young Award, and Luzardo being a reliable pitcher in his first year with Philadelphia, there isn't added pressure for Wheeler to quickly regain his standing as their top starter with those two leading the rotation.

Stark elaborated further on his concerns with the Phillies rotation:

"What's Andrew Painter gonna be? We'll find out. Aaron Nola looks tremendous [in spring training], but he certainly wasn't that guy last year, and then once you start getting beyond those names, I know Taijuan Walker's here, but I can tell you, the [Phillies] are actively looking for rotation depth."

Painter will experience the typical ups and downs a rookie faces in his first MLB season. That doesn't mean he won't be a serviceable option at the end of Philadelphia's rotation throughout the season. A rebound year from Nola will be paramount to their starting pitching depth, with questions about Wheeler and Painter. Nola needs to perform to the capabilities of a second or third starter, which he didn't do enough last year when he was healthy.

Considering the Phillies already have a crowded rotation with five starters and Wheeler working his way back from surgery, would they be able to sign another pitcher for more rotation depth, as Stark mentioned the club is willing to do? How many pitchers who become available before the regular season would be interested in joining a team where they'd be used out of the bullpen and, when needed as a starter, like Walker?

Stark summed up his thoughts about Philadelphia's starting rotation:

"So, what's the range of possibilities for this rotation? I know they think their upside is close to the 2011 Phillies because they could potentially have five aces, but their downside is very different, and I think the whole season hinges on that."

Everything could end up working itself out as the organization could have five starters capable of delivering ace-worthy performances at any time. However, the situation could just as easily develop into a volatile one. Stark is raising a worthwhile talking point, but there's no need to panic at this moment in time since there's a lot that needs to play out.