Alec Bohm's hot streak at the plate shouldn't come as a surprise. The Philadelphia Phillies' infielder is slashing .340/.412/.519 with a .931 OPS, two home runs and 20 RBI in his last 30 games.
Bohm has been on fire since the Phillies moved him from third base to first base after acquiring Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. The 30-year-old, who is in a contract year, hit .327 in August and is batting .297 with a .907 OPS in September. He has brought his numbers on the season up to a far more acceptable .248/.309/.390 with a .699 OPS, 15 homers and 82 RBI.
Why Alec Bohm's hot streak should've been more predictable
Despite a rough start to the year, it was only a matter of time before Bohm found his footing. Based on his underlying metrics, Bohm was always going to rebound towards his career norms.
According to Baseball Savant, Bohm has an expected batting average of .262 and expected slugging percentage of .411. These are closer to his numbers from last season, where he had an expected batting average of .275 with an expected .413 slugging percentage. In 2025, Bohm slashed .287/.331/.409 with a .740 OPS and 11 homers. For his career, he's hitting .274/.325/.411 with a .736 OPS.
In addition to his expected numbers, Bohm's in the 67th percentile for hard-hit rate (43.9 percent) and 77th percentile for exit velocity (90.6 percent). He was in the 66th percentile in both hard-hit rate and exit velocity last season. While this season didn't always look like Bohm's normal baseline on the surface, everything below the hood indicated it should've all along.
How the Phillies should approach Bohm's free agency
If Bohm can keep up his hot hitting, and carry it over into the postseason, he should be able to increase his value before entering free agency. However, it might make sense for Bohm to take the one-year qualifying offer and stay with the Phillies for another season.
The Phillies should offer Bohm the projected $23.1 million qualifying offer for 2027. This would brace them for the possibility of losing Arraez, who will surely command a multi-year deal after a bounce back 2026 campaign, on the open market.
Bohm will be 31 next August, and it could be logical for him to take a one-year prove it deal. As a result, he could rebuild his value before entering free agency in the 2027-2028 offseason. If Bohm's late surge is any sign of what's to come, he should bet on himself to have a big year next season. And based on his underlying numbers and career norms, he was always better than the player who got off to a rough start in 2026. For that, his recent hot streak shouldn't be a surprise.
Add us as a preferred source on Google