Max Kepler has received a mixed welcome since being signed by the Philadelphia Phillies. While the front office is obviously high on his ability to bounce back after a rough, injury-riddled 2024 season, some fans feel the team hasn't done enough to address the issues that plagued the offense in the second half of the season and resulted in an uninspired early playoff exit.
A lot has been made about his past injuries and health concerns. After the signing we learned from Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski that on top of all the known ailments Kepler dealt with last year, he also had a core injury that he has since had surgery on and recovered from. Whichever side of the fence you sit on, there's no denying how poorly Kepler's 2024 went at the plate. There's also no denying his success in the years prior.
We won't know how the 10-year MLB veteran will perform in red pinstripes until Opening Day rolls around at the end of March. It could be a huge high-reward move, or it could be a bust (which will bring back memories of the disastrous Whit Merrifield signing last spring). But there is one reason to believe that the left-handed corner outfielder will love hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
Max Kepler will love hitting home runs at Citizens Bank Park
The Bank and the Minnesota Twins' Target Field, which Kepler has called home for his entire career, are only separated by one point in the Statcast Park Factor rankings for left-handed hitters. Over the last three seasons, as a rolling average, CBP has a 103 park factor, while Target Field's park factor is 102 (100 is the league average). That's not even close to enough of a difference to move the needle.
However, there's one category in which the Phillies' home field provides a massive boost to lefties. With a three-season rolling average of a 127 park factor in home runs, CBP boasts the second-highest mark for left-handed hitters, trailing only the Cincinnati Reds' bandbox Great American Ball Park. Last season alone, The Bank had a 139 park factor in this category.
Target Field is no slouch, but with a three-year rolling average 104 home run park factor from the left side of the plate, it doesn't compare to Philadelphia.
Why does this matter for Kepler?
He only hit eight home runs in 2024 as he battled through injuries. According to Statcast's Adjusted Home Runs by Park, if he had played his games at Citizens Bank Park, he would have hit 12. In 2023, when he hit 24 homers, he would have received a boost to 29 at CBP.
In 2023, the now 31-year-old had an 89th percentile average exit velocity, 83rd percentile hard-hit rate, and 79th percentile barrel rate — all good indicators of potential to do real damage on batted balls — as is his career-high 115.4 mph max exit velocity, which he achieved this past season.
If he returns back to form in 2025, Kepler will enjoy calling Citizens Bank Park home and he should "Ring the Bell" plenty of times.