The Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in the entire sport, just shattered expectations with his record-setting payday. The twice-reigning Cy Young Award winner landed an enormous $32 million guarantee in his final arbitration season, and in so doing has completely altered the way starting pitchers will be paid henceforth.
While Skubal himself is the biggest winner in all of this, his good fortune will affect starters across the sport, and could change the future of the Philadelphia Phillies and their (hopefully) future ace Andrew Painter.
The 22-year-old Painter was the Phils’ first-round pick back in 2021, and immediately skyrocketed up leaguewide prospect rankings as he dominated older opponents in 2022. Unfortunately, the right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, and missed the better part of two seasons. He was clearly a bit rusty this past season, posting an ugly 5.40 ERA across 22 starts at Triple-A. Still, the Phillies and prospect evaluators are quite bullish on his ability to become a top-of-the-rotation arm sooner rather than later.
Tarik Skubal's record-setting deal could mean big money for Phillies’ Andrew Painter in the future
To that end, Painter is expected to open the year in the Phillies rotation, or make his debut in the season’s early running at the very least. If that happens, and Painter delivers on the immense promise he’s shown, it would behoove the Phillies to open up extension talks with his camp. Top-flight starting pitching is one of the rarest commodities in the sport, and locking up a young ace for a long time would help solidify the next competitive Phillies core.
However, if an extension is not forthcoming, then Painter will be subject to the normal service time rules for all MLB players, wherein the Phillies will retain his rights for three seasons at or near the league minimum salary before he enters the three year arbitration process.
A complicated system, salary arbitration occurs between a player and his team when an agreement cannot be reached on his salary for the coming season. When this happens, the player’s camp files a number that they believe to be fair, while the team submits their own number that they believe to be more reflective of his value. Ultimately, both sides present their case to a panel of arbitrators who pick one number or the other. Importantly, arbitrators cannot pick a middle ground, they can only choose one of the two submitted numbers.
This played out between Skubal and the Tigers, as the team and player were worlds apart in their salary expectations. The Tigers filed a $19 million figure, just a shade under David Price’s $19.75 million salary in 2015, the record for an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Skubal’s camp countered with an eye-popping $32 million number, beating out Juan Soto’s record-setting $31 million salary for any arbitration-eligible player.
News broke on Thursday that the arbitration panel sided with Skubal, awarding him the largest one-year salary ever given in the arbitration process. This has massive ramifications for player salaries moving forward, as precedent is a key ingredient in arbitration decisions, with each record-setting salary inching forward expectations for the next set of players.
If Painter develops into the star that the Phillies expect and the team can’t extend him, the arbitration process is likely going to cost the club a pretty penny. The Skubal decision now means that by year three of Painter's arbitration, the Phillies could be looking at paying him a salary north of $30 million, eating up a significant chunk of payroll. Of course, all of this depends upon Painter remaining healthy and effective for over half a decade at the MLB level, but if he does he’ll earn himself quite a payday thanks to Tarik Skubal.