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Predicting the likelihood of Phillies free agency from MLB Trade Rumors

Can Dombrowski work his magic?
ByLauren Amour
Sep 27, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA;  Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) celebrates at second base after hitting a two-run double during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
Sep 27, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) celebrates at second base after hitting a two-run double during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

MLB Trade Rumors recently released their ranking of the top 50 free agents in baseball for the 2026-27 offseason, along with predicted landing spots for each. 

Seven of those 50 free agents were projected to land with the Phillies by at least one of Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald, who authored the piece for MLBTR. But just how good of a fit is each one really?

Randy Arozarena

In a fairly weak free-agent class, Arozarena ranks No. 5 on MLBTR’s list and is projected to sign a four-year, $100 million contract. McDonald predicts the three-time All-Star outfielder will land with the Phillies, which shouldn't surprise, given that Philadelphia desperately needs consistent offensive production from its outfield if it wants to make the playoffs for the sixth straight season in 2027. 

Arozarena posted a career-best 5.7 bWAR in 2026, slashing .281/.381/.484 with 26 home runs, 79 RBI, and 26 stolen bases in 154 games. His .281 average and .381 on-base percentage would've ranked first among qualified Phillies hitters, and his .484 slugging percentage would've placed behind only Kyle Schwarber. Arozarena’s 26 stolen bases were short of only Bryson Stott’s 27.

Needless to say, Arozarena’s bat would be a tremendous addition to the Phillies’ lineup and give their outfield a much-needed upgrade. In 148 games in left field last season, the 32-year-old had a .997 fielding percentage, though Statcast still considers him a below-average outfielder. While Arozarena is an intriguing name and would likely add more pop to the Phillies' lineup, his age and the contract he would command are a bit concerning, especially considering the qualifying offer tied to his name.

Ryan Jeffers

Ranked as MLBTR’s No. 9 free agent, Adams predicts Jeffers will sign with the Phillies. Again, this shouldn't be shocking, with Philadelphia in dire need of catching help. 

J.T. Realmuto, who will enter his age-36 season in ‘27, is nowhere near the All-Star catcher he once was, despite still being fairly good defensively. He’s quite valuable to the Phillies’ pitching staff, but he’s become a liability at the plate and comes up empty in too many key situations to still be playing as much as he does. He batted just .205 in 123 games last season. Moreover, Rafael Marchan had a .099 average in 34 games and dealt with a knee injury, while longtime backup Garrett Stubbs was designated for assignment on Nov. 2.

At this point, the Phillies will see Realmuto’s three-year, $45 million contract through to 2028. But given Realmuto’s age, injury history, and steady decline in offensive production, adding a proven catcher like Jeffers on a projected four-year, $75 million contract would be a smart move. Since the '23 season, when Jeffers posted career bests in bWAR (3.2) and OPS (.858), the 29-year-old has hit 58 home runs, driven in 210 RBIs, and walked 161 times in 429 games. 

Would a free-agenct reunion between Luis Arraez and the Phillies be beneficial to either?

Luis Arraez

Arraez ranks as MLBTR’s No. 15 free agent and is predicted to land a three-year, $48 million deal. And at least one person had to predict Arraez to return to the Phils, right? A small part of me wants Arraez back because his short tenure in Philly was just so … strange. And with his season abruptly ending on Sept. 24 due to an ankle injury, I feel like he earned more time in red pinstripes. 

But maybe not, because Arraez is, well, Arraez, and his 46 games with the Phillies didn't do much to inspire a new deal. His .278 batting average was the lowest of his career, managing only 49 hits in 191 plate appearances. The 29-year-old finished the year with a .310 average after being selected to his fourth All-Star team. 

At this point, Arraez is who he is. His floor is too low, and his ceiling isn't high. It probably wouldn't be worth bringing him back beyond last summer’s trial run. Plus, the small outfield at Citizens Bank Park doesn't quite suit Arraez's style.

Ian Happ

As MLBTR points out, despite Happ not being the flashiest name in this year’s free-agent class, he has never posted below a 105 wRC+ in his 10 Major League seasons, though his .218/.326/.412 slash line in ‘26 was one of the weakest of his career. Still, Happ ranks 17th on MLBTR’s list and is predicted to land a three-year, $45 million contract in free agency.

Happ has been a stalwart in the Cubs’ lineup since his debut in 2017 and has posted at least 20 home runs in his past four seasons in Chicago, but has failed to eclipse an .800 OPS in any of those years. 

The 32-year-old was named to his first and only All-Star team during the 2022 campaign, when he had a career-best 4.3 bWAR. While Happ’s offensive output leaves much to be desired, he is a four-time Gold Glove Award winner in left field. Adding Happ would likely maintain the status quo offensively in the Phillies’ outfield, but it would provide them excellent defense—something they've lacked for quite some time.

Evan Phillips

After the Phillies' bullpen struggled mightily in 2026, it’s surprising that Phillips is the only reliever connected to Philadelphia on MLBTR’s list. He ranks 29th and is predicted to land a two-year, $24 million deal in free agency. 

The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2025 and returned in July of this year. After a rough first few innings back, Phillips eventually found his groove, posting a 1.80 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks over his final 15 innings of the season. 

And prior to his UCL tear, Phillips was dominant out of the Dodgers’ bullpen, tossing 184 ⅔ innings to a 2.14 ERA with a 29.6% strikeout rate. He also saved 45 games and collected 36 holds, making Phillips a great candidate as a bridge to the Phillies’ All-Star closer, Jhoan Durán. Philadelphia sorely lacked a solid eighth-inning guy throughout ‘26, so Phillips should be on its radar this offseason if he doesn't return to L.A.

Carson Kelly

Should the Phillies fail to land Jeffers, they could pivot to Kelly for their catching mix. Ranked as MLBTR’s 33rd-best free agent, the 32-year-old Kelly would likely come at half the price of Jeffers at two years and $20 million, but is a few years older. 

Kelly’s best season came in 2025, when he posted a 3.5 bWAR with 17 home runs and a .761 OPS in 111 games. He followed that up with a solid ‘26 campaign, batting .258 in 120 games as the Cubs’ starting backstop, splitting time with Miguel Amaya. Chicago also has No. 2 prospect Owen Ayers waiting in the wings, who can catch and play first base.

For what it's worth, both Franco and McDonald predicted Kelly would sign with Philadelphia.

Taylor Ward

Will this be the year when Ward finally joins the Phillies? Franco seems to think so. The 32-year-old left fielder has been linked to Philadelphia at numerous trade deadlines, but Ward landed with the Mariners in ‘26 after beginning the season with the Orioles.

In 143 games between Baltimore and Seattle, Ward batted .225 with a .670 OPS and just seven homers, a far cry from his 2025 campaign with the Angels, when he hit a career-high 36 bombs and drove in 103 runs. 

Ward’s ability to produce 20 to 30 homers gives him upside, but he appeared to lose any semblance of his former power in favor of more patience at the plate. Perhaps he would fare better on the Phillies, who are known for chasing at the plate.

MLBTR’s No. 49-ranked free agent, Ward will enter his age-33 season in ‘27 and is predicted to earn an affordable one-year, $12 million deal.

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