What is the ideal starting lineup for the Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series?
Let's take a look at what might be the starting lineup for the Phillies in their NL Wild Card Series
The 2023 Phillies have gone through a number of lineup variations. We’ve had the high profile, free agent pick up, Trea Turner drop from the two spot all the way to eighth, just to find his way back to the top of the lineup. Nick Castellanos spent the majority of the year batting third or fourth but has recently settled into the seventh spot. And maybe the biggest and most important change was moving Kyle Schwarber back to the leadoff spot after starting the year jumping around the two, three and five hole. All in all, the Phillies have had 109 different batting orders according to baseball-reference.
So, what is the optimal lineup for the Phillies for the NL Wild Card Series?
First, let’s start out settling a major defensive alignment conundrum that will directly affect the lineup. Rob Thomson has announced that Bryce Harper will play first base during the playoffs, which opens up the DH spot.
Knowing Harper will occupy first base, it’s time to layout the best lineup that will give the Phillies the best chance of moving on to the NLDS.
1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
This should come as no surprise. From June 4th, when Schwarber was reinserted back at the leadoff spot, the Phillies have gone 61-37 which is good for the third best record in all of baseball. Schwarber’s innate ability to work the count, draw walks, and set the tone with mammoth homeruns, is irreplaceable at the top of the lineup.
2. Trea Turner, SS
Turner has had a roller coaster of a season but ever since the fans gave him the standing ovations and showed him the support he needed; he has been on an absolute tear. Since August 4th, Turner is slashing .328/.379/1.041 with 16 homeruns and 42 rbi. He has settled into the two hole very nicely and has been the spark the Phillies had expected.
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
It took some time for the Phillies emotional leader to find his power and stride after returning from Tommy John but Harper will be entering the Postseason seeing the ball well. The third spot in the order is typically reserved for the teams best player and Harper embodies just that for the Phillies. Not to mention, he is an absolute menace in clutch situations and with men on base.
4. Alec Bohm, 3B
Bohm was inserted into the cleanup spot recently and has only had 71 total at bats there all season but he has taken advantage of it so far. On the season, Bohm has hit .349/.396/.873 with RISP and with Schwarber, Turner, and Harper in front of him, there is a good chance there will be guys on base. When Bohm is hot, there aren’t many hitters in this lineup that are as pure hitting it to all parts of the field, and he is seeing ball entering the most important part of the year.
5. Bryson Stott, 2B
Having a pure contact hitter like Stott behind the top four hitters in the lineup is key. Stott has a knack for working the count and limiting strikeouts. He has the innate ability to work pitchers and grind out at bats. He will either have opportunities to knock base runners in or “pass the baton” to the next batter for lengthy innings. The only concern here is that September has been a relatively down month for Stott but hopefully the rest the Phillies earned by clinching early does him well.
6. Nick Castellanos, RF
This is likely the first spot in the order that Rob Thomson will not agree with. All season, this spot has been reserved for J.T. Realmuto and Castellanos spent the majority of the year at the three or four spot. But the right fielder has been one of the Phillies most consistent hitters all year and their leading rbi producer. It’s imperative to be able to capitalize on opportunities and to limit double plays which Realmuto has a knack of hitting into. Also, after a slow post All-Star break, Castellanos has started to heat up again and is getting into one of his patent grooves. That bodes well for the lineup and the Phillies.
7. Brandon Marsh, LF
Another surprise here with Marsh in the seventh hole. Having the left-handed hitting left fielder here helps to continue the lefty/righty split through the lineup and lessen the exposure the opposing teams have at bringing in a relief pitcher specifically for a group of righties or lefties. Not to mention, Marsh is hitting .276/.372/.823 on the year and has consistently provided well timed hits for this offense. Marsh has struggled lately with strikeouts but with the postseason upon us, the Phillies will look for him to buckle down and grind out good at bats.
8. J.T. Realmuto, C
Unfortunately, Realmuto has not been at his best at the plate in 2023. Thomson has consistently put him higher in the lineup, but Realmuto has yet to deliver to his full potential. Dropping him in the lineup will hopefully relieve some pressure and allow him to get back to what he’s done for so many years. Another wrinkle with the standout catcher is his home and away splits. Realmuto is hitting .306/.364/.951 on the road and .198/.257/.575 at home which is a staggering difference.
9. Johan Rojas, CF
Since being called up from AA, Rojas has batted .309 with a .344 on-base percentage. He is a menace when getting on base, causing much trouble for the opposing pitcher with his game changing speed. He has been exceptionally good in September, batting .344 and getting on base at a .373 clip. But all of that being said, his true value comes from his stellar defense in center field. He has been a revelation for this Phillies team out in center and has provided a spark for the defense. Being able to move a capable defender like Marsh to left field and and Schwarber to DH has done wonders for this team. Rojas should be given a shot at the nine hole for this playoff run.
Alternatives options:
The big variable for Rob Thomson is what he will do when a lefty is on the mound. Thomson has shown time and time again that he likes to play the match ups with the opposing starting pitcher and stack the lineup. Throughout the year, he has sat Marsh (and sometimes Stott) against left-handed pitching. Could he do that in the wild card round?
If he does, the Phillies look to have two options in left field that they could turn to:
Cristian Pache, LF – Right-handed bat alternative
Pache has had an injury riddled season that has derailed any progress and momentum that he has made. At his best, he has shown flashes of figuring it out from the plate and shows a terrific glove in the outfield. But since he has come back from injury, in September, Pache has hit a lowly .091/.231/.382. It’s been tough sledding for him as of late. He is also a notoriously below average base runner. Although he has plus speed, he has only two stolen bases and he’s been caught three times. It would be difficult to insert him into a lineup for the entirety of the game with the way his bat has been going but can be a true asset as a defensive replacement in the late innings of the game.
Weston Wilson, LF – Right-handed bat alternative
Flying under the radar, the 29-year-old Wilson, had a terrific season in Lehigh Valley. In 2023, he joined the 30-30 club with 31 homeruns and 32 stolen bases. He had a 1.025 OPS against lefties in the minors and plays above average defense all over the field. He could provide the right-handed spark off the bench for this Phillies team, or they may even elect to insert him in the starting lineup against tough throwing left-handed pitchers.
Rob Thomson has an offense that is starting to hit its stride at the right time. He has many variations he could use and a lot of versatility. It will be interesting to see how he deploys the squad in a tough first series.