The untouchables: 4 top prospects Phillies definitely need to keep off the trade block

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare for the 2024 MLB season, they plan to make some moves during the offseason to help bolster their roster and aim to have a shot again at a World Series championship that has eluded them for the past two seasons.

They have already completed their first significant move by bringing back team ace Aaron Nola on a huge seven-year deal worth $172 million. They have also made a couple of minor league deals on the side to add further depth to their system. 

However, the Phillies don’t appear to be done yet as they look to continue to retool their lineup in a determined attempt to improve their chances from last season. If they don't find their potential solution in free agency, they could ultimately turn towards exploring the trade route to address their needs. 

If they do proceed in that direction, more than likely it will require the use of some of their prized assets in the form of top prospects in the organization as trade bait. However, at the same time, the Phillies probably don’t want to deplete their system to jeopardize their future success. Which of their prospects should be deemed untouchable this offseason?

Here are four top prospects in the Phillies’ system that they should keep away from trade talks at all costs. Losing any of these players could potentially come back to haunt them in a big way in the not-so-distant future.

Orion Kerkering, RP, No. 7 prospect

Let's start with the phenom who made his MLB debut right at the end of the season with the big league club Orion Kerkering.

Despite being just a fifth-round draft pick of the Phillies from the recent 2022 MLB Draft, Kerkering has already taken great strides in his growth and development over the past two years. In fact, he has had perhaps one of the greatest ascensions in team history. In his 2023 season, he made it through four minor league levels and ultimately went right into the majors and subsequently into the playoffs for good measure.

How was he able to accomplish such a feat?

Relying primarily on a devastating sweeping slider and his deceptive delivery has brought him great success. In his 2023 minor league season, he compiled an impressive 1.51 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP, giving up only nine earned runs all year with 79 punchouts in just 53 2/3 innings pitched. He even fared well and didn't look out of place with the Phillies in the playoffs until things unraveled a bit for him during the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Nevertheless, Kerkering showed great promise and aims to be part of the big league bullpen for the 2024 season. With his skills and talent level, he could potentially even be the heir to the Phillies’ closer role in the near future with the way he exudes confidence and composure.

With the Phillies losing their 2023 closer to free agency, they may already have their future solution in place. The key now is to make sure they don’t deal him away and see him become an All-Star reliever elsewhere.

Mick Abel, SP, No. 2 prospect

For the former first-round pick of the Phillies from the 2020 MLB Draft, Mick Abel is perhaps the next best thing behind Andrew Painter in terms of the team’s top pitching prospects. With a pitching arsenal very similar to Painter's, with a mid-80s wicked slider to go along with a devastating fastball constantly in the mid to high-90s, it has helped pave his way to success in the past three years in the Phillies’ minor league system.

This past season, Abel pitched primarily for the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils, where he posted a respectable 5-5 record with a  4.14 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, along with 126 strikeouts in just 108 2/3 innings pitched in 22 starts. His solid work even earned him a late-season promotion to Triple-A in which he made a start for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs prior to the end of the season.

Overall, Abel has compiled a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 328 strikeouts in 266 1/3 innings of work in his minor league career.

Abel likely will start the 2024 season with the IronPigs, but a strong Spring Training could put him on the forefront of a big league call-up sometime over the course of the season.

With the ability to form a dynamic duo at the front end of the rotation with Painter in the near future, the Phillies should keep Abel in their grasp to ensure it comes to fruition. That way, their young guns will be able to complement the star veterans of Nola and Zack Wheeler, who are already in place, to make the Phillies a strong, long-term contender.

Andrew Painter, SP, No.1 prospect

The former first-round pick right out of high school by the Phillies from the 2021 MLB Draft, right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter is perhaps one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball.

Armed with a blistering 70-grade fastball and a 60-grade slider, along with tremendous command and control with his pitches, Painter blazed through three minor league levels during the 2022 season. He posted a combined ERA of 1.56, WHIP of 0.887 and 155 strikeouts in just 103 2/3 innings pitched. It was truly an amazing feat as he did it all at just the young age of 19, making him the top-ranked prospect in the organization according to MLB Pipeline in the process.

More impressively, it was believed that Painter actually had an inside shot of making the Phillies’ 2023 Opening Day roster until he was befallen by an elbow UCL injury that resulted in season-ending Tommy John surgery in the end. As a result, Painter likely won’t be back in action until the 2025 season.

Despite the Phillies being currently in win-now mode, they shouldn't even think about including Painter in any trade talks, given his enormous talent and potential. He represents the Phillies’ best homegrown pitching talent since Nola and will no doubt be a force on their pitching staff for many years to come.

In addition, his value could be hindered by his current injury status, so it makes no sense for the Phillies to move him when they might not end up getting anything of quality back. As a result, the key for the Phillies now is to be patient with Painter so that they can reap the benefits once he's back to full health.

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