Twins vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug. 12 (Bet Philly as home underdog)

The Phillies are undervalued in the betting market on Saturday afternoon.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies are red hot, climbing to the No. 1 wild card spot in the National League while winning seven of their last 10 games. 

While Philly is still well behind the Atlanta Braves in the division, it should have a great chance of making the postseason. A big reason why is the team’s offense, which ranks third in Major League Baseball in OPS over the last 15 days. 

The Minnesota Twins, Philly’s opponent on Saturday, are in the midst of some struggles, losing four straight games ahead of this matchup. The Twins still have a lead in the AL Central, but they’re also just two games above .500. 

Twins All-Star right-hander Pablo Lopez (7-6, 3.81 ERA) gets the ball in this game against Taijuan Walker (13-4, 3.98 ERA). Lopez has been great in 2023, posting a Fielding Independent Pitching well below his ERA at 3.27. 

Here are the odds and my best bet for Saturday’s matchup: 

Twins vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Phillies prediction and pick

Lopez’s numbers in 2023 indicate that he’s the better starter in this matchup, but there is one key that I want to look at before picking a winner. 

Despite Lopez’s success, the Twins are just 13-10 in his 23 starts. The opposite can be said for Walker, who has a FIP of 4.39 in 2023. The Phillies are an insane 17-6 in his starts, and they’ve won 10 of his last 11 outings. 

Over that stretch, Walker has a 2.60 ERA and has earned the win in nine of those games. 

The offenses of these teams are on different spectrums, with Philly emerging as one of the best units in baseball over the last 15 days while the Twins are in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in OPS and runs scored over that stretch. 

The fact that Philadelphia is an underdog at home shows how much oddsmakers believe in Lopez, but I think Walker is being woefully undervalued here. 

I’ll take the Phillies to pick up a fourth straight win on Saturday. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.