The 2023 season has not gotten off to a good start for the Philadelphia Phillies or today’s starter Aaron Nola.
Nola, a Cy Young candidate last season, is just 4-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 4.40 Fielding Independent Pitching in his first 12 starts this season heading into Monday’s matchup with the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers are in the midst of a bit of a skid, losing three straight, but they are still third in the AL Central. Joey Wentz (1-5, 7.28 ERA) gets the ball for the Tigers in this game.
With both starters struggling, how should we bet on this game?
Here are the latest odds and my favorite play for Monday’s matchup:
Tigers vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Tigers vs. Phillies prediction and pick
With both pitchers struggling, this may seem like a no-brainer matchup to take the OVER, but I’d hold off on doing that.
Wentz has been terrible, but so have the Phillies against left-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in the league in OPS against lefties this season.
They may get to Wentz in this game, but it may not be for as many runs as they’ll need. Plus, the Tigers are 28th in all of baseball in OPS and 29th in runs scored in 2023.
Instead of the OVER, I think this is a prime bounce-back spot for Nola, who has faced tough offenses in Atlanta and New York in his last two starts.
While Nola has struggled giving up the long ball (12 in 12 starts), he’s posted a 1.12 WHIP on the season. Detroit is just 27th in MLB in homers this season, so it’s possible that doesn’t come back to bite him on Monday.
Meanwhile, Wentz has allowed a ton of baserunners, posting a WHIP of 1.68 with 62 hits and 17 walks allowed in 47.0 innings of work.
I’ll back the Phils to win this one going away with Nola due for a strong start.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.