The Philadelphia Phillies needed to put some distance between themselves and the Marlins in the National League Wild Card race and they did so by taking three of four games from Miami this week. Now, they’ll look to keep pulling away with a weekend series against the Kansas City Royals at Citizens Bank Park.
For Game 1 tonight it will be Jordan Lyles against Aaron Nola on the mound. Lyles is 2-12 with a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts this year and Nola is 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA in 22 starts. The Phillies are big favorites today, so let’s check out the odds.
Royals vs. Phillies odds, run line and total
Royals vs. Phillies prediction and pick
It finally happened, Jordan Lyles finally got another win. It took quite a while and the Royals are still just 2-18 in his starts, but last time out Lyles went five innings and gave up three runs, but got the win. Lyles has been better lately and his FIP of 5.35 means I’d expect his ERA to keep dropping. Nola is in a similar situation where his FIP is lower than his ERA and could be ready for some strong outings.
Last time on the mound Nola really seemed to tire over 4.2 innings in which he allowed seven runs, but only five were earned in Pittsburgh. He had three walks which was very uncharacteristic and his defense was not doing him any favors in that 7-6 loss to the Pirates. I expect Nola to be a lot better this time out unless his clear fatigue on the mound last outing was a sign of something more underlying and we’ll find that out today.
The Phillies are sixth in team ERA over the past 30 days, so the bullpen will pick Nola up. Lyles managed an ERA of 3.86 in July, so I’ll take the under for his first start in August. Kansas City has won six straight games, so it’s hard for me to see the value with minus odds on the Phillies run line.
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